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Canada’s ruling Liberals, who a few weeks ago looked certain to lose an election this year, are mounting a major comeback amid the threat of US tariffs and are tied with their rival Conservatives, according to three new polls.
An Ipsos survey released late on Tuesday showed the left-leaning Liberals have 38% public support and the official opposition right-of-center Conservatives have 36%. The Liberals have overturned a 26-point deficit in six weeks, and run advertisements comparing Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, to Donald Trump.
The Conservative strategy had long been to attack the unpopular prime minister, Justin Trudeau, but he said last month he was resigning after more than nine years in power.
The Liberals, who will choose a new leader on 9 March, steadily picked up support after the US president threatened to impose tariffs on almost all imports from Canada and said he wanted to annex Canada as the 51st US state.
“The Conservatives are facing headwinds from rising anti-Trump sentiment and anticipation surrounding the Liberal party’s new leadership,” Ipsos said in a release.
The next election must be held by 20 October but could come much sooner than that. The new Liberal leader has the option of calling an election immediately.
A Leger poll released on Tuesday put the Conservatives on 38% public support with the Liberals on 35%, compared with 43% and 21% respectively in December. And an Ekos poll, also released on Tuesday, put the Liberals on 38% and the Conservatives on 37%.
The results of the three polls indicate that if an election were held now, the Liberals and Conservatives would both fall well short of a majority in the 343-seat House of Commons and could only take office with the support of smaller parties.
Such minority governments are less stable and rarely last more than two years. During the second of two Liberal leadership debates on Tuesday night, the major contenders called for tough countermeasures against the US and said the Conservatives’ Poilievre would not save Canada.
“Who’s the worst person to stand up to Donald Trump? It’s Pierre Poilievre. He worships the man. He uses his language. He’s not the right person for our country at this crucial time,” said the former central bank governor Mark Carney.
Poilievre’s office was not immediately available for comment.
The former finance minister Chrystia Freeland told the debate that “Trump is posing the gravest challenge our country has faced since the second world war”.
