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The demographic of tourists visiting Bali has changed since the pandemic, residents say, with a wave of backpackers, digital nomads and expats creating the conditions for a criminal underbelly to thrive on the Indonesian island famed for its peacefulness.
Bali politician Agung Bagus Pratiksa Linggih said he had seen an increase in long-term visitors with low budgets in the years since the Covid-19 pandemic, and that local facilities and infrastructure were racing to keep up.
“The quality of tourists coming to Bali is decreasing. This is due to the rapid growth of illegal homestays, which allows low-budget foreigners to stay longer in Bali,” he said.
Paul Werner, owner of PaD Bar and Grill in Kuta, who has lived and raised a family in Bali over the past 10 years, agreed there had been a change since Covid, with a flood of money coming into the island.
“Crime generally follows where the tourists are going. It is mainly a lot of drunk westerners not knowing how to level out their alcohol and fighting over nothing,” Werner, who lived in Adelaide before moving to Bali, said.
“Is [crime here] getting worse, or is it the Australians coming here getting worse?”
In June, the island was rocked by the fatal shooting of Melbourne man, Zivan Radmanovic, 32, after men allegedly stormed his villa in Munggu with his wife hiding inside. Balinese police, who have charged three Australians with murder and allege the killing was premeditated, have said they are still investigating.
Asked if it was possible Radmanovic was not the intended target, a Bali police spokesperson reportedly said detectives were “still investigating that”.
‘It’s close, it’s cheap’
Bali’s connection with Australia has long been marred by misbehaving Australians, but at times also shadowed by drugs and crime – from surfers smuggling to fund their expeditions to the trials of Schapelle Corby and the Bali Nine.
Melbourne man Jan Laczynski, who lost five friends in the Bali bombings in 2002, said most locals and tourists still felt safe, but that he believed organised crime was becoming more visible.
“Shootings in Bali are unheard of. In Melbourne, they happen all the time, but not here,” he said. “People are asking how they even got the guns. Is there an underworld market forming?”
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Indonesia has one of the lowest crime rates globally. According to Indonesia’s Central Statistics Agency, in 2023, only three firearm-related crimes were recorded in Bali. Indonesia’s homicide rate stood at 0.4 per 100,000 people as of 2017 – less than half Australia’s rate.
But Bali police have reported a 16% increase in foreigners involved in crime – 226 in 2024, up from 194 in 2023. Offences range from cybercrime and narcotics to violent crime and land fraud.
Bali social justice advocate Piter Panjaitan said locals were becoming increasingly uneasy.
“We’ve seen meth labs, villa robberies, crypto scams, property fraud, and ATM theft – often involving Russian or eastern European groups,” he said.
He blamed Bali’s open-door tourism model and post-pandemic economic desperation.
“Corruption, weak law enforcement, and easy entry make it a haven for some criminals,” he said. He called for tighter immigration checks, more training for police in tourist areas, and stronger collaboration with foreign agencies.
“We need quality tourism, not just quantity,” he said.
Criminology professor Adrianus Meliala at the University of Indonesia said Bali may soon see escalating rates of organised crime.
“The demographics are changing, with more foreigners settling long-term, some bringing conflicts and criminal elements from their home countries.”
Meliala said Bali could be an attractive option for criminal groups from Australia and elsewhere: “it’s close, it’s cheap, and law enforcement struggles to keep up.”
“Organised crime is not just terrorism or people smuggling any more – it’s broader now, and Bali is attractive economically and logistically.”
About half a million tourists visit Bali each month, according to Indonesia’s statistics bureau, while a growing number of digital nomads also flock to the island.
The provincial government hopes to hit a record 6.5 million international tourists this year – and the island’s infrastructure is racing to keep up.
Munggu village chief I Ketut Darta said 400 villas had been constructed rapidly just this year – many owned by foreigners – wiping out much of its agricultural wetland.
When the Guardian visited, many half-constructed buildings could be seen dotted around a landscape of paddies and coconut groves.
Darta said he was concerned the rapid change and influx of foreigners could affect security in his community, where violence had been extremely rare.
“There has never been a shooting here, even fights are rare,” he said.
“We patrol our village 24 hours a day. Tourism is our lifeblood, and we must protect it.”
