Calm before the storm: nervous Brisbane waits for Alfred’s arrival

4 hours ago 1

Brisbane residents who lived through the devastating 2011 floods recall an “eerie calm” that set upon the city.

Back then, the city woke to sun and blue sky, but knowing the severe threat from rising flood waters was on its way. The driving rain had stopped, but the looming river peaks would cause most of the widespread damage.

There is a similar sense of unease in the city this week, as Tropical Cyclone Alfred lingers more than 500km off the coast, moving slowly away from land.

Forecasters say it will probably veer back towards the coast later today, and potentially make landfall between the Gold and Sunshine coasts late on Thursday.

Authorities have clearly grasped the scale of potential disaster. The last time a cyclone struck south-east Queensland – more than 70 years ago, in 1954 – the Gold Coast resembled a beachside fishing village.

Forecast map for Tropical Cyclone Alfred, as at 10.45am AEST on Tuesday 4 March.
Forecast map for Tropical Cyclone Alfred, as at 10.45am AEST on Tuesday 4 March. Illustration: Australian Bureau of Meteorology

There are now more than 4 million people on alert for Alfred’s track towards the coast, including communities that are uniquely vulnerable, in part from historic planning laws that allowed homes and suburbs to be built in swamps and floodplains.

Few would question the decision to begin daily televised information briefings so early – in this case five days ahead of Alfred’s predicted arrival on the coast – even if it has instigated a rush on bottled water and canned food at supermarkets.

But the situation has also set off an odd sense of foreboding; of sunny morning walks, enjoying a mild breeze, and waiting days for it to turn into the predicted destructive wind and rain; a feeling like watching a meteor heading to Earth, but being unable to do much but hope it doesn’t hit.

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At a suburban bowls club on Tuesday, volunteers fastened up the canvas awnings while dog walkers sat about the cafe next door, listening to Billy Joel’s Piano Man in the sun. Of course they were talking about the cyclone.

Of course the threat is real. But it won’t feel real to many in Brisbane until Alfred turns towards the coast and the wind picks up; until the signals from nature begin to match the warnings from forecasters that we need to prepare for a most rare phenomenon, a tropical cyclone hundreds of kilometres south of the tropics.

Schools are advising families they are unsure if they’ll be forced to close. Some sporting events scheduled for Thursday and Friday remain un-cancelled.

Until Alfred arrives, the eerie calm of uncertainty will loom over Brisbane.

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