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China’s energy production is putting coal and renewables in competition with each other, according to a new analysis that found continuing approval of coal-fired projects in 2024 undermined the “unprecedented” surge in clean energy production.
The analysis of China’s 2024 energy production – released on Thursday by two thinktanks, the Global Energy Monitor and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) – found China’s major advances in energy production were being held back by a commitment to coal power.
China is the world’s biggest carbon emitter but also its biggest producer of renewable energy. The government has pledged to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060. But experts fear those targets will remain out of reach as long as it keeps approving new coal production and prioritising coal-fired power.
“Coal-fired power generation could decline, yet the coal industry continues to expect growth, setting the stage for an increasingly unsustainable conflict between coal investments and the need to decarbonise the power system,” the report said. It found China had shown an “unprecedented pace” of renewables production in 2024, adding 356GW of wind and solar capacity. The figure was almost equal to the US total for the same year, and about 4.5 times that of the EU.
Despite solar and wind soaring, and helping drive China’s ailing economy in 2023-2024, its usage inexplicably dropped off in the later part of the year, CREA said.
“The record decline in solar output and the unexpected drop in wind utilisation was not explained by weather conditions, indicating rising curtailment – much of which may be unreported,” it said. Qi Qin, lead author of the report and China analyst at CREA, said curtailments were driven largely by long-term power purchase agreements that set minimum quotas for coal power bought by local governments.
“China started to do [these agreements] in 2020 for energy security, to ensure there will be enough power throughout the year at reasonable price,” said Qin.
“More solar and wind should be integrated into the power grid, but the fact is it wasn’t [because of these agreements].”
China’s rate of approvals for new coal energy was also of concern, the report said.
In 2024 China also approved 66.7GW of new coal-fired capacity, started construction on 94.5GW of new coal power projects – the most in one year since 2015 – and resumed construction on 3.3GW of suspended construction projects. One gigawatt is the equivalent of a large coal power plant. The report said China accounted for 93% of global construction starts for coal power in 2024.
The approvals, while lower than previous years, sped up in the latter half of 2024, dampening hopes that an earlier slowdown – just 9GW worth of power plants were given permits in the first half of 2024 – signalled China was turning a corner.
The amount of actual coal power capacity brought online in 2024 – about 30GW – was far below the government’s target of 80GW, but Qin said the new construction signalled China would more than make up for it over the next two to three years, with a “substantial” number of new plants on track to start production.
Qin said some of the figures in their analysis were positive “but it’s not good enough”.
“China knows that it has two carbon goals, and it knows they have to stop increasing coal consumption by 2025. With the abundance of renewables, China has the capacity to move even faster.”
The concurrent growth in clean energy production and continued pursuit of coal-fired power created a “conflicting dynamic” and worked against a principle of winding down the fossil fuel industry as renewables came onboard, including by limiting the full integration and use of the new renewable power, CREA said.
“Coal and clean energy are increasingly competing for space in China’s power system,” it said. “Despite record-breaking clean energy additions, Chinas power sector remains structurally misaligned with its decarbonisation goals. The parallel expansion of coal and renewables risks undermining China’s clean energy transition.”
