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Alassane Ouattara is seeking a fourth presidential term as Ivory Coast goes to the polls on Saturday, after a campaign in which he touted economic growth while facing accusations that he has overseen a growing intolerance towards dissent.
An estimated 8.7 million people are eligible to vote. Four candidates are challenging the incumbent, including the former first lady Simone Ehivet Gbagbo and a trio of former ministers: Henriette Lagou Adjoua, Ahoua Don Mello and Jean-Louis Billon.
Two leading opposition figures – Ouattara’s predecessor Laurent Gbagbo and the former banker Tidjane Thiam – have been disqualified from the race. Both have accused Ouattara of eroding democratic institutions and failing to provide equitable growth.
The 83-year-old, seen as the favourite by bookmakers and analysts, has twice coasted to re-election victories and overseen constitutional reforms that allowed him to sidestep a two-term limit. His rivals say he is past his peak and is clinging to power for the sake of it.
“[Ouattara] believes he is so well positioned that he can win everything,” Simone Gbagbo told the Guardian. Billon, who at 60 is the youngest of the presidential candidates, has urged Ivorian youths to “dare to change with a new generation”.
Gbagbo, once wanted by the international criminal court for crimes against humanity alongside her ex-husband Laurent Gbagbo, heads the leftist MGC (Movement of Capable Generations). The party was formed in 2022, a year after a rancorous divorce finalised the split of the couple who led the west African country through two civil wars.
Key issues driving voter concerns include the cost of living, youth unemployment, rural-urban inequality, forced displacement owing to urban gentrification, the impact on cocoa farming of climate pressures and governance reforms.
While Ouattara points to an average annual economic growth of 7% and multiple infrastructure projects as his record in three consecutive terms, his critics say the development is not trickling down to the people and that the country is far from united.
‘‘President Alassane Ouattara built the roads to connect the cities. Simone Gbagbo will build the roads to reconcile Ivorians,” Charles Blé Goudé, a former ally of Gbagbo’s husband told people in the town of Diégonéfla on Monday.
The Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) faces scrutiny over transparency and credibility, after the disqualification of Thiam and Laurent Gbagbo. This week, angry youths vandalised the CEI office in Yamoussoukro, the Ivorian political capital.
“[CEI] is accused of being part of an advantage for the ruling party … [there is] this perception of the actors involved,” said Arsène Brice Bado, a professor of political science at the Centre for Research and Action for Peace. “The opposition does not fully trust these institutions and we see it through all the debates around.”
Analysts say the electoral outcome could influence the country’s political stability in a region where there has been democratic backsliding in recent years: since 2020, there have been nine successful coups and at least seven failed attempts in west and central Africa.
Bado believes Ivory Coast is relatively insulated from coups or military intervention because of better cohesion within the security forces and support from international partners.
“Also, there could always be surprises, but in other countries, the army has often been at the forefront of attacks, with many soldiers killed, so dissatisfaction was very visible. This is not the case in Côte d’Ivoire. A coup would really be a huge surprise and I personally think the probability is quite low.”
Regardless, there remain fears of post-electoral crisis as no election in the past decade has been without violence in a country that has never had a peaceful transition of power between elected presidents. After the 2020 election, more than 50 people were killed including Toussaint N’Guessan Koffi, a 34-year-old farmer who was beheaded during communal clashes in the opposition stronghold of Daoukro in the country’s centre.
In Abidjan this week, supermarket aisles were full of people stocking supplies for the weekend even as others made their way to the Ghanaian border for weeks of forced holiday.
Earlier this month, Amnesty International expressed concern over the escalating tensions and the government’s response to dissent. More than 250 people have been arrested for protesting against Ouattara’s fourth term and the barring of opposition candidates. Three-year sentences have been handed out to 32 of the protesters, with another 105 due to stand trial soon.
“Anyone detained solely for the peaceful exercise of their human rights should be released immediately … Amnesty International reminds the Ivorian authorities that peaceful protest is a right, not a privilege,” Marceau Sivieude, its west and central Africa director said in the statement.
In a recent dispatch, the Lagos-based geopolitical advisory outfit SBM Intelligence said the crackdown had continued in part because regional and international actors, including Ecowas and the African Union, had maintained a largely indifferent stance. “This silence effectively gives Mr Ouattara continued space to entrench his position and narrow the path to inclusive dialogue,” it said.
