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Voters in western democracies are turning away from mainstream political parties and towards populists because they are losing faith in their ability to implement meaningful change, a major report based on surveys of 12,000 voters has found.
The popularity of traditional centre-left and centre-right parties across major democratic countries has plummeted from 73% in 2000 to 51% today, according to research by the Tony Blair Institute.
Researchers looked in depth at the views of samples of 2,000 voters polled in each of six big democracies – the UK, US, Australia, Germany, France and Canada – and found they were “remarkably similar”.
They concluded that voters were increasingly turning away from centre-left and centre-right parties not for ideological reasons, but because confidence in their competence and integrity have plummeted.
“Whatever voters are looking for, they increasingly seem to doubt that it can be delivered by the parties they have traditionally elected to office,” the report said.
In the TBI’s analysis, voters were divided into “insiders”, who were willing mainstream politicians to work, and “outsiders”, who have given up on traditional parties and turned to insurgents. Both groups wanted honesty, competence and reform – but the difference was in their faith in mainstream parties to deliver it, the thinktank said.
Outsiders felt they were victims of a system run by remote elites serving their own interests instead of implementing simple solutions to political problems. They placed greater value on “common sense” over independent evidence, and strong, decisive leaders over negotiation and compromise.
In the UK, older voters were likelier to be outsiders, while in France and Germany – where the far-right National Rally and Alternative for Germany have surged in popularity – younger and older voters were equally likely to be outsiders.
Across the countries surveyed, there was a high degree of economic pessimism among voters, who expected children born today to be worse off than their parents. This feeling was most acute in the UK – where 49% expected children to be worse off, compared with 26% who expected them to be better off – and in Australia and France.
The report found that this economic pessimism was linked to declining faith in democracy. Of those voters who said they had negative views about democracy, 77% said they believed that children born today would be worse off than their parents.
Voters generally thought that technology made their lives better, but were ambivalent about its impact on public services. Asked how optimistic they were about potential improvements brought about by AI, most placed themselves between a three and seven out of 10. Outsiders who were distrustful of politicians were much more pessimistic about technology.
The report concluded that “the key to bringing coalitions back together is effective delivery” and “paradoxically, modern technology can offer part of an answer”. It suggested that, for example, introducing digital IDs, which the UK government has backed, could help assuage concerns about controlling immigration.
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Ryan Wain, the TBI’s executive director of politics, said the findings served as a “clarion call to mainstream parties: disrupt or be disrupted”.
He said that to build and maintain support, mainstream parties needed to “change through disruption – of social media feeds, of the old left-right spectrum and by embracing new technology, especially AI. At the same time, credible answers must be provided for legitimate grievances, including around immigration.”
Rob Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester, said the report reflected that “while the TBI has provided us with an elegant and rigorous report to give us a diagnosis of the problem, they don’t offer much by way of a cure. I’m not sure anyone has the answer.”
He added: “The central conundrum of our times is: is there any kind of deliverable performance for any government that voters will reward? We’re seeing every single incumbent getting kicked out whatever they do, whatever they support, whatever narrative they promote.
“Take a typical Reform voter – they will say, ‘here’s a list I demand that the government do’. Some of those things are impossible for any government to do. They will say they want net migration down to zero and major improvements to the healthcare system, and also lower taxes. How? If you deliver any one of those things you are making it drastically harder to deliver the others.”
