1 month ago
20
Key events Show key events only Please turn on JavaScript to use this feature
Confusion over the Alaska summit shows Putin still calls the shots - analysis
Shaun Walker
The offer to thrash out a Ukrainian peace deal at a bilateral summit with Trump represents exactly the sort of great-power deal-making Putin has always craved. It will be his first trip to the US since 2007, with the exception of visits to the UN.
Exactly how the Alaska summit will look is still unclear, with a particularly Trumpian kind of confusion and chaos accompanying its announcement. Kyiv, European capitals and even Trump’s own staff have been trying to understand what exactly was agreed in the Kremlin.
As worrying for Kyiv as the planned format of the talks is the apparent Russian deal now on the table. The plan, as it has been reported after filtering through the Trump administration and then to European capitals, is that the Ukrainian army should unilaterally withdraw from the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk it still controls, which would presumably include the fortified military stronghold of Kramatorsk. In exchange, the Kremlin would agree to freeze the lines in other places.
Zelenskyy’s public posture that Ukraine will never cede land is true up to a point. Kyiv is unlikely to renounce legal claims to its own territory, but the Ukrainian elite and much of Ukrainian society is increasingly ready for a deal that would recognise Russian de facto control, perhaps for a set period of time, in exchange for ending the fighting.
The main problem with such a deal has always been what kind of guarantees Ukraine would receive that Russia would not simply use a ceasefire as time to regroup before attacking again. Brief discussions earlier this year about a European peacekeeping force to police a ceasefire were quickly scaled back to a “reassurance force” stationed far from the frontlines. Ukrainians would therefore have not much to rely on but Putin’s word, which they have learned from experience not to trust.
Over the past few days, Zelenskyy and his team have been rallying support among European leaders and trying to put together an alternative, European plan. Unfortunately for Kyiv, previous experience suggests Trump is unwilling or unable to exert real pressure on Putin.
“If Putin and Trump reach an agreement directly, Europe will be faced with a fait accompli. Kyiv – even more so,” said Roman Alekhin, a Russian war blogger, on Sunday.
It is exactly that prospect Ukraine’s leadership will be doing their utmost to prevent in the days before Friday’s summit.
Morning opening: Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine
Jakub Krupa
A group of European leaders insisted over the weekend that “the path to peace in Ukraine cannot be decided without Ukraine” amid growing concerns about the US president Donald Trump’s plans to strike a deal with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, when the pair meets in Alaska on Friday.
A hastily arranged statement signed by the leaders of Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, the UK, and the European Union reiterated that “a diplomatic solution must protect Ukraine’s and Europe’s vital security interests.”
Speaking to the German broadcaster ARD, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said he hoped and assumed that Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, would also be involved in Friday’s summit in Alaska and that he made representations to Trump on this issue.
“We cannot accept in any case that territorial questions are discussed or even decided between Russia and America over the heads of Europeans and Ukrainians,” he said. “I assume that the American government sees it the same way.”
EU foreign ministers are meeting virtually for an emergency meeting today to discuss the next steps.
On Sunday, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed the support, saying on X: “The end of the war must be fair, and I am grateful to everyone who stands with Ukraine and our people today for the sake of peace in Ukraine, which is defending the vital security interests of our European nations.
But there are still no guarantees as to what will happen next and what concessions Trump might be willing to agree to, leaving Kyiv and most European capitals deeply uncomfortable ahead of the summit on Friday, and they will want to use every minute to influence the US position.
Let’s see what the day brings.
Elsewhere, I will be also keeping an eye on another extreme heatwave in parts of Europe, with Spain and France among countries expecting to see temperatures close to or above 40 degrees Celsius once again.
I will bring you all the key updates here.
It’s Monday, 11 August 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.
