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For the first time since the end of the second world war, France has recorded more deaths than births, suggesting that the country’s long-held demographic advantage over other EU countries is slipping away.
Across the country in 2025, there were 651,000 deaths and 645,000 births, according to newly released figures from the national statistics institute Insee.
France had long been an exception across Europe, with birthrates that topped many of its neighbours’. In 2023 – the most recent year for which comparable data is available – the fertility rate in France of 1.65 children per woman was the second-highest in the EU, trailing only Bulgaria’s 1.81.
This week’s data, however, suggests that the country is not immune to the demographic crunch sweeping the continent as populations age and birthrates tumble.
On Tuesday, Insee said the fertility rate in France had dropped to 1.56 in 2025. This was the lowest rate since the end of the first world war.
It was also a 24% drop compared with the 2.01 rate registered 15 years ago, the institute’s Sylvie Le Minez said. “Since 2010, births have been declining year after year in France.”
A public consultation carried out by the national assembly late last year gave insight into why this may be happening. Of the more than 30,000 respondents, 28% cited the financial costs of raising and caring for children as the principal obstacle to having them, while 18% cited worries about the future of society and 15% pointed to the difficulties in balancing the needs of a family with work and personal life.
The data suggests that France is poised to join the many other EU countries facing the prospect of a shrinking labour force as ageing populations increase the cost of pensions and elderly care.
Life expectancy in France reached record highs last year, at 85.9 years for women and 80.3 for men, while the share of people aged 65 or older climbed to 22%, hovering around the same proportion of those under the age of 20.
“This is not a first for European countries,” said Le Minez, highlighting that 20 of the EU’s 27 countries had registered more deaths than births in 2024. “But this time, this is also the case for France.”
Even so, France’s population grew slightly last year to 69.1 million, due to net migration which was estimated to be about 176,000. As anti-immigration sentiment, led by France’s National Rally, steadily makes inroads in the country, projections have suggested that the rise of the far right could speed up population decline.
Without immigration, France’s population could drop to as low as 59 million by 2100, according to recent forecasts by Eurostat, the EU’s official statistics agency.
