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Plaid Cymru’s decisive victory in the Caerphilly byelection proves that Labour’s century of dominance in Wales is over. Voters now face a clear choice between two very different futures, and Caerphilly shows that it is Plaid Cymru’s bold, inclusive vision that carries momentum.
Caerphilly was one of the safest Labour seats in Wales. Many London commentators expected the seat to fall to Reform – perhaps even hoped it would. It would have fit the narrative that post-industrial communities naturally drift to the populist right. We proved them wrong. A message built on fairness, community and national purpose resonated with voters, and a comfortable majority voted for it.
Reform UK threw everything it had at this campaign. Busloads of activists came from Kent. Their anti-refugee banners and billboards made local people feel uneasy and sought to pit neighbour against neighbour. Reform thought it could surf a wave of anger and fear, but people in Caerphilly saw through their cynicism. They rejected the idea that Wales should be used as a stepping stone for Farage’s next Westminster project.
Plaid Cymru’s message of hope beat Reform’s hate. Where Reform shouted division, we talked about belonging. Where they peddled blame, we talked about community. That matters not just for us in Wales, but for progressives everywhere. The populist right can be beaten when people are offered hope and a vision of a fairer future.
The result couldn’t be more damning of Labour. Eluned Morgan and Keir Starmer’s brand of managerial politics does not speak to Welsh voters any more. Labour once claimed to be the natural party of Wales. “Natural” parties die when they stop standing for something. In Caerphilly, decades of complacency caught up with them.
People here no longer believe Labour represents their communities, their values or their ambitions. They see a party that has swapped conviction for calculation and focus-grouped slogans. The byelection result shows that Labour’s hold on Wales is gone.
Winning almost half the vote was no statistical fluke. It was the result of thousands of doorstep conversations, a campaign powered by volunteers, a message grounded in belief, and the charisma of a local champion in Lindsay Whittle, whose decades of hard graft mean he is known and loved by people here.
Conviction politics still works. Clarity and passion can defeat cynicism and drift.
Momentum is now with Plaid Cymru. As we move towards a fully proportional Senedd, the possibilities for genuine, people-led government have never been greater. Caerphilly has lit a fuse under Welsh politics, and it is burning brightly towards 2026.
Wales faces a simple choice. One path is regressive, built on resentment and division, dressed up in Reform’s slogans. The other is progressive, inclusive and confident, led by Plaid Cymru. The people of Caerphilly have already chosen, and their message will echo far beyond their constituency.
There are lessons here for every progressive movement in the UK. You don’t defeat extremism by copying its language or trimming your values to fit a poll. You defeat it by standing for something real. When Reform tried to weaponise Welsh programmes that help refugees to integrate, making Ukrainians feel unwelcome, we stood up to them. We defended what is right and stayed true to our values.
We are focusing on policies that will transform people’s lives, not just tinker at the edges. Our free childcare plan is worth more than £30,000 in childcare costs in the first four years of a child’s life – the most ambitious in the UK. Our manifesto will be grounded in a recognition that too many in our communities have been left behind. We are determined to change that. Like Scotland, we will take real action to tackle child poverty through a new child payment. This is what bold, practical politics looks like – politics with purpose, ambition and heart.
When voters see authenticity, they respond. Former Labour voters, and many who had given up on politics, did not come to Plaid reluctantly. They came enthusiastically. They saw a movement that reflects their aspirations and speaks their language.
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This result carries weight far beyond one seat. It shows that Starmer’s Labour, and Westminster politics as a whole, can no longer take Wales for granted. The old order of British politics is breaking down.
Starmer’s cautious managerialism offers no answers to the cost of living crisis, the climate emergency or the constitutional question. People want more than competence. They want conviction. Caerphilly shows that Wales is ready to build the government it deserves, in the country it believes in.
This was never about just one seat. It marks a shift in spirit. Caerphilly has opened a new chapter in Welsh politics. Hope has proved stronger than hate, belief has beaten cynicism.
The people of Caerphilly have shown the way. Labour’s old Wales is fading, and a new, self-assured Wales is taking its place – one led by Plaid Cymru.
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Rhun ap Iorwerth is the leader of Plaid Cymru and the member of the Senedd for Ynys Môn. Prior to being elected in 2013 he was the chief political correspondent with BBC Wales
