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Crossing Gwent Square on a cold, crisp day in Cwmbran, married couple Maxine and David Griffin have more in common than with each other than they did a year ago.
In July, the Brexit-supporters both voted for the Reform UK party in the constituency of Torfaen; it was the first time they had both voted for the same party.
Maxine, 52, who works in a cafe, had previously voted Conservative, while her husband, 55, a postman and union rep had always voted Labour.
“I used to vote Conservative, but obviously they were so terrible that I wasn’t going to vote for them any more, and Labour, I wouldn’t vote for Labour anyway,” Maxine said.
“For me, Reform were just more straight talking, say it how it is, whereas I always find Conservative or Labour, they just, they tell you what you want to hear. But you just know that when they get in, they just don’t do what they say.”
David, nodding, adds: “I don’t trust Starmer, so that’s why I voted for Reform.”
Lack of faith in politics is a running theme among the voters the Guardian interviewed; the vast majority said they would not vote for any party.
But of those who would vote – Reform UK supporters were easy to find. It is unsurprising, then, that the party is making loud noises in Wales – declaring earlier this month it was “leading in Wales” and was now the “official opposition” to Labour in the Senedd, which is due to hold elections in May 2026.
This confidence comes after the party’s Welsh conference in Newport on 8 November, at which time they published an on-the-face-of-it encouraging poll showing 26% of voters in Wales would vote Reform compared with 24% who would vote Labour.
The south Wales valleys are home to numerous post-industrial towns that were hit by the decline of the coal industry; similar to other targets in South Yorkshire that the Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, has also revealed to be in his sights.
So if they are to deliver on these forecasts, who do they need to convince and what do they need to campaign on?
Olivia Jones, 32, a paramedic who lives in Cwmbran, engages with politics mostly on social media, particularly Instagram. “Lots of friends of mine repost reels of different things about the Reform party,” she said, explaining she would consider voting for them.
“Just want to vote for someone different,” she said. “I find Nigel Farage speaks more sense to me than a lot of the others.”
“I think it’s a lot to do with the borders. People coming into the country should be vetted properly and [abide..] by the right laws. Reform stand strongly on that.”
Immigration is an issue frequently mentioned by voters in the town but not exclusively; many are frustrated with the state of public services, as well as a general apathy and distrust with capital-centric politics, be that in London or Cardiff; many cite the perceived charisma of Farage as a major appeal.
Ian Stevenson, 45, who is originally from Birmingham but now lives in Abergavenny, said: “What have Labour done? They’ve taken money off everybody and everything is going up in price – I just think they’re ruining everything.”
Stevenson said he liked Farage and viewed him as an honest person and was attracted by the party’s perceived harder line on immigration.
“Immigration is the biggest issue for me,” he said. “The illegal immigrants and everyone coming in and all the money that’s been spent on them and being taken away from everybody else.”
Stevenson, who works in security, said there had been an increase in foreign nationals in Abergavenny and claimed a rise in assaults in the town of 14,000 people were being committed by such incomers. The Guardian has found no evidence for these claims.
“The only houses in Abergavenny are being given to [foreign nationals],” he said. “People that have been waiting for houses all their lives, waiting like in the line, but they [foreign nationals] are coming in and they’re being given the best houses.”
The Guardian was again unable to find evidence of these claims.
A so-called “town of sanctuary” has been set up in Abergavenny to better facilitate refugees in the town. According to the group’s website, there are now seven Syrian families and four families from Afghanistan.
The frustration with 25 years of Labour controlling the Senedd is palpable among many of the voters the Guardian interviewed.
Marilyn Bevan, 65, a carer from Abertillery, has previously voted Labour and never Conservative, said: “Labour doesn’t do anything for where I live.”
She cited antisocial behaviour, housing and potholes.
“They’re taking the winter fuel allowance off the pensioners, I’ll be a pensioner next month. The government now they give to the rich and penalise working-class people.”
On Reform, she said: “I do listen to their views and what they say they would do, I probably would next time give them a chance.”
“Farage seems to be personable, and has a good sort of character, he seems to be genuine. A lot of them say one thing and don’t carry it out – he seems to be on most people’s wavelengths.”
Bevan said the antisocial behaviour in her town included use of e-scooters, open drug use and relentless barking of dogs.
“They know they can get away with it,” Bevan said. “Our concerns are ignored. Older people like myself, we’re nonexistent, once you’re over a certain age.”
Malcolm Pearson, 78, who lives in Malpas, a suburb of Newport, voted Labour his whole life but was now considering voting Reform in 2026.
“Labour just don’t represent the people any more. They represent Cardiff and London. They represent themselves.”
Pearson cited allegations levelled at the former Welsh Labour leader, Vaughan Gething, of accepting donations from a convicted criminal. He said the UK government was “penalising pensioners” by taking away the winter fuel allowance.
Pearson, who was a diesel fitter and worked with lorries before retiring, expressed discontent with public services, giving his wife’s nine-hour wait for an ambulance when she had pneumonia as an example.
Reform is pushing the interpretation of its most recent poll to its limits. Opinium asked 2,116 adults in the UK which party they would vote for if there were a general election tomorrow. It then broke those down into country-specific figures, which show that just 86 of that weighted sample were people in Wales.
But the party is undeniably gaining traction in Wales. Though it did not win a seat at the general election, Reform UK finished second in 13 constituencies, including a considerable number of the south Wales valleys seats. The Conservatives finished second in 10 seats.
Joe Rossiter, co-director at the independent thinktank the Institute of Welsh Affairs, said the polling was “credible”, arguing the party could do even better in 2026.
“That polling, which suggests they get between 14 and 17 seats, is credible and I don’t think it is completely out of the realms of possibility that they get beyond the 17 seats and into the 20s, which then does have significant impact,” he said.
“Predictions under a new electoral system are risky, however,” he said in reference to recent changes introduced to the Senedd.
“With regards to beating the Conservatives to become the official opposition, the Conservatives are doing pretty poorly with what should be a good set of conditions for them,” Rossiter said. “They’re having internal conflict about whether they support the abolition of the Senedd or not, which is not a very popular opinion with the Welsh public.”
The concentration of support for Reform in the south plays to the party’s advantage in Wales, he said.
“Reform’s voter base is currently very geographically located in the south-east of Wales, south Wales Valleys and some parts in the north, which plays into their favour, because it means that they will pick up seats, as opposed to having a really broad base of support that isn’t particularly clustered in any particular area,” he said.
“In the 25 years since devolution, levels of poverty and levels of economic inactivity remain above the UK average in Wales. NHS waiting lists remain higher in Wales than the rest of the UK. People are asking fairly legitimate questions about the performance of devolved government in these areas, as they are devolved issues. People are also, post-pandemic, increasingly aware of what is devolved and what isn’t, the pandemic was a kind of seminal moment in this regard.
“These are failings that can be pinned on the Senedd and Welsh government, which means that there’s a lot of specific regionally focused aspects that some people in Wales are really angry with, and Reform are doing fairly well in mobilising them.”
