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On Sunday afternoon, two of the best teams in the NBA’s Western Conference faced off on national television. When it was over, the Oklahoma City Thunder had routed the Denver Nuggets 127-103, pulling away in the fourth quarter thanks to a barrage from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who had 40 points on the day. But because it was the NBA, the game was less about the teams and more about the stars at the center of the action – who just so happen to be the league’s top two MVP candidates.
Denver’s Nikola Jokić has been named NBA MVP three times in the past four years. That’s rarefied air. Only three men – Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird – have won the award three times in a row. And only a small number of guys, including Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson and LeBron James, have won it three out of four years. The year Jokić didn’t win it during his streak, he lost a close vote to Philadelphia 76ers star Joel Embiid in an especially heated contest that included accusations of racism.
But more than racially charged conversations, questions of history and voter fatigue are central when it comes to NBA accolades. Not only do voters take into account the current season but they also consider the bigger picture of league history. And that is exactly what they will be doing again this year when selecting between the league’s top two candidates, Jokić and Gilgeous-Alexander. These things don’t take place in a vacuum.
When Embiid won the MVP Award for the 2022-23 season, some voters, whether they would admit it or not, didn’t want to make Jokić the fourth player in NBA history to earn three MVP Awards in a row. He was good, but as good as Bird, Wilt and Russell? Did the voters want to say that with their vote, too? There was even speculation that Jokić played a little below his standard down the stretch that season so as not to invite comparison to those three hallowed players. Never mind that Jokić’s team won the NBA title that season.
This year, in ESPN reporter Tim Bontemps’ popular straw pole, the top two MVP finishers from likely voters were Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokić, with the Canadian earning the top spot. Maybe it’s because Jokić is a three time winner while the 26-year-old Gilgeous-Alexander is the new kid on the block. Not only are the Thunder comfortably in first place in the West, he’s the main reason why. He’s also leading the league in scoring, and he finished second in MVP voting last year (losing out to Jokić in his highest finish so far). And while there have been several perennial MVP winners in the past, the voters often likes to reward the newcomer. It makes for a better narrative.
In 2017, triple-double machine Russell Westbrook kept Steph Curry from winning three in a row. A few years prior, Kevin Durant stopped James from doing the same. That wasn’t the first time a player had stopped James getting three is succession: Derrick Rose was the man to do so in 2011. Charles Barkley blocked Michael Jordan from his own personal three-peat in the early 90s – there are plenty more examples throughout NBA history of this happening. In a close race, the fresh face usually gets the nod in the voting over the established incumbent.
But that raises the question whether the race should be close this year. As of this writing, as Denver and OKC prepare to meet again on Monday night, Jokić is third in the NBA in rebounding (12.9 per game) and points per game (28.9) and second in assists (10.6). No one in history has ever finished in the top three in all of those categories for a season. Not Jordan, James or Wilt. On the other hand, Gilgeous-Alexander leads the league in scoring (32.8 per game) and his team are 52-11, coming off their beatdown of Denver on Sunday.
Wins matter and Gilgeous-Alexander’s team are second in the entire NBA in that category, just a game behind the 53-10 Cleveland Cavaliers. The Thunder are also a whopping 12 games ahead of Denver in the standings. And if they keep up that pace, their guard will win his first MVP. It’s a lock. Even after Sunday’s game, Stephen A Smith declared the race over after he, and the rest of the country, witnessed Gilgeous-Alexander dominate the fourth quarter and balloon his team’s margin of victory to more than 20 points, capped off by a beautiful hezzy layup.
Jokić defenders will point to his performance just a few days ago when the Serbian big man tallied a never-before-seen 31 points, 21 rebounds and 22 assists in a game over the spiraling Phoenix Suns. How can someone who can put up a stat line like that not be the world’s best? Well maybe he is the player you’d choose first to face the proverbial alien invaders, but that doesn’t mean he will get the MVP this year. James has long been considered the face of the NBA but he’s won the MVP only four times in his decades-long career.
As of this writing, Gilgeous-Alexander is a huge betting favorite to win MVP over Jokić in distant second. And unless Gilgeous-Alexander incurs an injury or his team fall off a cliff, he will take home the hardware. Just don’t expect him to stay at the top of the heap for long. That’s just how it goes.
