Outsiders sense Chess World Cup glory after host of big names make early exits

An early cull of the favourites at the Chess World Cup in Goa has resulted in 15 of the top 20 seeds heading for home early. It has also created a lopsided pairing situation where almost all the remaining favourites are concentrated in one half of the draw.

The two surviving top seeds, India’s world No 5 Arjun Erigaisi and China’s No 10-ranked Wei Yi, could meet in the quarter-finals, while the headline pairing in Friday afternoon’s fifth round is Levon Aronian, the US star who has already won the World Cup twice, against Erigaisi.

Several of the top 20 were eliminated in the first three rounds of the $2m (£1.5m) tournament, among them India’s 19-year-old world champion Gukesh Dommaraju, the double world title finalist Ian Nepomniachtchi, and the controversial US star Hans Niemann.

Aronian introduced a subtle wrinkle on move three (!) against Radoslaw Wojtaszek: 1 e4 e5 2 Nc3 Nf6 3 a3!? The point is that after 3...d5 4 cxd5 Nxd5 (which the Polish world No 57 played) White has 5 Qh5! whereas in the mirror variation 1 e4 e5 2 Nf3 Nc6 3 d4 cxd4 4 Nxd4 Qh4?! 5 Nb5! is awkward to meet. Taken by surprise, Wojtaszek conceded a pawn early and Aronian scored a smooth victory.

The only Latino remaining, José Martínez of Mexico, confounded his critics, following up his 2-0 defeat of Uzbekistan’s Nodirbek Abdusattorov by a 1.5-0.5 win against Serbia’s Alexey Sarana.

Sam Shankland of the US won a miniature against the highly-rated Hungarian Richárd Rapport in 25 moves.

The effect on the eight-man Candidates tournament, to be played in Cyprus in March-April 2026, is that at least one of its three qualifiers from the World Cup will be an unfamiliar name. In the last Candidates, staged in Toronto in 2024, the little-known Azerbaijani Nijat Abasov qualified in a similar way and duly became a chopping block for the major contenders.

3998 Aryan Tari (Norway) v Pranav Venkatesh (India), World Cup, Goa 2025. Black to move and win.

Round five in Goa, the round of the last 16, starts at 9am GMT on Friday, The pairings, with seedings in brackets, are:

Frederik Svane (Germany, 64) v Javokhir Sindarov (Uzbekistan, 16)
Pentala Harikrishna (India, 24) v José Martínez (Mexico, 57)
Nodirbek Yakubboev (Uzbekistan, 28) v Gabriel Sargissian (Armenia, 76)
Liem Le (Vietnam, 13) v Alexander Donchenko (Germany, 61)
Daniil Dubov (Russia, 30) v Sam Shankland (USA, 46)
Aleksey Grebnev (Russia, 86) v Andrey Esipenko (Russia, 27)
Wei Yi (China, 7) v Samuel Sevian (USA, 23)
Levon Aronian (USA, 15) v Arjun Erigaisi (India, 2)

Round five can be watched on chess.com with commentary by England’s David Howell and Jovanka Houska, and on lichess, with move-by-move computer assessments.

If the two classical games on Friday and Saturday finish level, matches will progress on Sunday to pairs of rapid and blitz at accelerating time rates. If the players are still level after 10 games, there will be an Armageddon game, where White has more time but a draw on the board counts as a win for Black.

The field is gradually taking shape for the $1m 2026 Candidates, which will take place in Pegeia alongside the women’s tournament. Hikaru Nakamura, the world No 2 from the US, has qualified for the ratings spot, so joins the US champion and world No 3 Fabiano Caruana (Fide 2024 tournament circuit). Anish Giri (Netherlands, world No 8) and Matthias Bluebaum (Germany, No 43) qualified via last month’s Fide Grand Swiss. Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu (India) was knocked out of the World Cup by Dubov on Thursday, but leads the 2025 Fide circuit rankings and is almost sure of that place. The final three Candidates spots will be decided by the World Cup final and third-place match.

Away from the World Cup, England’s youngest ever grandmaster Shreyas Royal, 16, has had the performance of his life this week at Zagreb, Croatia, in the annual Tournament of Peace, which, long ago in 1970, was won by Bobby Fischer. Its 2023 edition went to Hans Niemann, who then lost no time in comparing himself to his illustrious predecessor, while the 2024 winner was the elite veteran Vasyl Ivanchuk.

Royal’s victory was impressive. He scored 7/9 with six wins, two draws, and only one defeat. He was especially strong in the endgame, winning several times from level positions. The youngster won five of his first six games, establishing a 1.5-point lead before slowing down with draws in the next two rounds, then winning his final game for a full one-point margin over his nearest rival.

The final crosstable shows that Royal had a tournament performance of 2730, elite grandmaster standard. The Greenwich teenager has not been included in this month’s London Classic at the Emirates Stadium, but has surely earned himself a place in the England team for the next Olympiad in Tashkent in September 2026, plus further tournament invitations.

3998 1...Rc8! 2 Qxb5 Rxg4+! 3 Bxg4 (3 Kf1 Rc1 mate) Qxg4+ 4 Kh2 Qh5+ (but not 4...f3+?? because 5 Qxe5 gives check) 5 Kg1 Rg8+ 6 Kf1 Qxh1 mate. The actual game finished 1...Rc8 2 Rh6? Rxg4+! and White resigned.