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Few expected things to move so quickly. Supporters of the Philippines’ former president Rodrigo Duterte barely had time to protest before he was jetted off to The Hague to face charges of crimes against humanity in relation to his country’s so-called “war on drugs”. According to activists, this bloody crackdown has seen as many as 30,000 people killed since 2016.
The charges brought against the former leader are the culmination of years of work by activists, lawyers and victims, who documented abuses committed under his government, often at great personal risk. But Duterte arguably would not have been surrendered to The Hague if it weren’t for his family’s dramatic feud with that of Ferdinand Marcos Jr, the current president.
The two families were once allies. Marcos Jr ran on a joint ticket with Duterte’s eldest daughter – Sara Duterte, now the vice-president – in the 2022 election, winning a landslide victory. At the time, Marcos Jr, who capitalised on the popularity of the Duterte name, was careful not to criticise Rodrigo Duterte’s war on drugs, and promised not to cooperate with the international criminal court’s continuing investigation.
But the Duterte-Marcos marriage of convenience descended into a bitter dispute, with Sara Duterte launching scathing attacks on the president, even threatening to dig up the remains of his late father, the dictator Ferdinand Marcos Sr, and throw them into the sea.
It was inevitable that the families’ alliance would collapse, according to Prof Maria Ela L Atienza, of the University of the Philippines. Both sides want their candidate to be elected president in 2028, so, she said: “It’s a fight for the survival of their political families, their dynasties.”
Marcos Jr’s public comments about the ICC shifted as tension grew. His government has continued to maintain that it would not assist the court, of which the Philippines is no longer a member, but explained that it would cooperate with any arrest warrant issued via Interpol.
Shortly after the plane carrying Duterte took off on Tuesday night, Marcos Jr told reporters: “The arrest that we did today was in compliance with our commitments to Interpol. It just so happened that that came from ICC.”
According to Tony La Viña, a lawyer and former dean of the Ateneo de Manila University school of government, the arrest was a “perfect execution” by Marcos Jr’s administration.
When the warrant came, “they executed it and within the day they sent Duterte to The Hague, giving no chance for the supreme court to issue a TRO [a temporary restraining order against his arrest]”, he said.
The Dutertes may now struggle to recover their power. Rodrigo, who has the most political clout, is now outside the Philippines, just as the country gears up for crucial midterm elections in May.
Rodrigo Duterte is running to become mayor in the family’s stronghold, Davao, but faces a challenge from an upstart dynasty, which analysts say marks the most significant threat to the Dutertes’ power there in two decades. The former president is still thought likely to win, but it is unclear how he would be able to perform his mayoral duties from The Hague.
The mid-term elections are also important because Sara Duterte is due to face an impeachment trial soon after the vote. The family needs its allies to be elected to the senate if she is to avoid being removed as vice-president and prevented from running for president in 2028.
Rodrigo Duterte’s supporters have portrayed him as a victim who was denied due process by the vengeful Marcos family, and who has been wrongly handed over to foreigners. The irony of the first claim is not lost on the victims of the war on drugs, many of whom were never given a day in court, but instead gunned down in the streets.
“Suddenly they are now using terms that they were laughing at [before],” said Atienza. “They are now calling for people power, they are using terms like rule of law, human rights. It’s really hard to sell.”
The battle between the families, and online messaging from both sides, is likely only to intensify. Cleve V Arguelles, the CEO of the public opinion research firm WR Numero Research, said: “It will really be crucial in the coming weeks what kinds of narratives will be offered to the public and how the public will respond.”
He added that the Dutertes were fighting to protect their power at a national level and on their home turf. “It’s all at stake now,” he said.
