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Millions of voters in Romania, Poland and Portugal will cast their ballots this weekend in an electoral “super Sunday” that will determine the course of their democracies at a time of heightened political, commercial and economic tensions.
In Romania, the far-right candidate is the frontrunner in a presidential runoff, while the first-round vote in a deeply polarised Poland will see liberal, conservative and far-right hopefuls vying to become president.
But in Portugal, which is holding a snap legislative election just 14 months after the last vote, the status quo looks set to continue. Here’s what you need to know.
Hasn’t Romania already had a presidential election?
Yes. Well, the original vote last year was annulled – and its shock far-right winner disbarred – amid widespread concerns over Russian interference and other irregularities. So the vote on Sunday is the second round of the second presidential election in six months.
This time an ultranationalist, EU-critical Trump admirer is in a run-off against a centrist independent in a vote that analysts have called the most important in the country’s post-communist history.
George Simion, 38, who sports Maga caps, promotes a socially conservative agenda and wants the “Melonisation” of Europe and to halt military aid to Ukraine, won the first round comfortably with 41% of the vote, nearly double the score of his rival.
Second-placed Nicușor Dan, the 55-year-old mayor of Bucharest, has cast the runoff as a fight between “a pro-western and an anti-western direction for Romania”. Polls show the gap between the two narrowing, with one putting them neck and neck.
Riding a wave of voter frustration with Romania’s mainstream parties, Simion has promised, if he wins, to appoint as prime minister Călin Georgescu, the shock winner of last November’s cancelled vote.
The first-round defeat of the ruling Social Democrat-Liberal coalition’s candidate triggered the resignation of the pro-European prime minister, Marcel Ciolacu, and the de facto collapse of the government. A new coalition must now be formed.
Analysts have said a Simion victory could see the country swing sharply to the right: a confidence and supply deal between Simion’s AUR party, the second largest in parliament, and Coalacu’s Social Democrats is seen as a post-vote possibility, as are snap elections.
The ballot is being closely watched by the EU, which could do without another disruptor in the region alongside Hungary and Slovakia. Also interested are nationalists – including in Washington – who accused Bucharest of trampling on democracy after the original vote was cancelled and Georgescu barred from standing in the rerun.
Romania’s president has a semi-executive role with considerable powers over foreign policy, national security, defence spending and judicial appointments. They also represent the country, a Nato member, on the international stage, and can veto important EU votes.
Sounds pretty high stakes. How about in Poland?
Also high stakes, certainly, at least, for Donald Tusk’s government.
Sunday’s vote will narrow down the list of contenders to be the country’s next president, a role that carries some influence over foreign and defence policy – as well as robust powers to veto legislation passed by parliament.
Since 2023, the country has been governed by Tusk’s Civic Coalition, an ideologically diverse and politically fragile alliance of pro-democratic parties. Its central promise has been to reverse the controversial and expansive changes pursued during the eight years of rule by the national-populist Law and Justice (PiS) party.
But the government’s ability to deliver on these promises remained hampered by the veto power vested in the country’s president, a position held since 2015 by Andrzej Duda, a close political ally of the ousted administration and a firm supporter of US president Donald Trump.
Winning the presidential race would consolidate the government’s position and could help it fulfil some of its liberal promises on social issues such abortion and LGBTQ+ rights.
Having consistently led the polls, Rafał Trzaskowski, the 53-year-old centrist mayor of Warsaw and a senior member of the Civic Coalition, is the candidate to beat.
His main rival is a 42-year-old conservative, Karol Nawrocki, who is formally independent but endorsed by PiS. The previously little-known historian hopes to offer a fresh face and break with the populist-right government’s polarising legacy while sticking to its core messages on sovereignty, illegal migration and frustration with green policies.
Trzaskowski and Nawrocki are almost certain to win the top two positions, and go through to a runoff on 1 June.
Sławomir Mentzen, a 38-year-old leader of the far-right Confederation party, is the outside candidate, who briefly challenged Nawrocki for second place but has faded over the past month.
Presenting himself as a spokesperson for a younger generation disenchanted with mainstream politics, he campaigns on a ticket of radical deregulation and tax cuts. An outspoken critic of the EU and opponent of liberalising migration, LGBTQ rights and abortion laws, he is believed to be positioning himself for the 2027 parliamentary elections.
What about in Portugal?
This one is expected to bring fewer fireworks.
Portugal is heading to the polls for its third snap general election in three years after the country’s centre-right prime minister, Luís Montenegro, triggered Sunday’s vote in response to growing questions over his family’s business activities.
Montenegro, the leader of the Democratic Alliance (AD) platform that has governed Portugal since its narrow victory in last year’s election, has come under growing scrutiny relating to a data protection consultancy that he founded in 2021, but which he transferred to his wife and sons the following year.
Faced with questions over possible conflicts of interest, Montenegro – who has denied any wrongdoing or ethical breaches – staged a confidence vote in his administration in March, saying he wanted “to end the atmosphere of permanent insinuations and intrigues”. But he lost the vote and a fresh election was called.
Recent polls suggest a similar result to last time, putting the AD on about 33%, the opposition Socialist party (PS) on 26% and the far-right Chega party on 17%.
Montenegro appears likely to once again fall short of a majority – even if he strikes a deal with the small Liberal Initiative party, which is polling at about 6% – and will struggle to govern, especially if the PS makes good on its threats to oppose his legislative agenda.
Although Montenegro has maintained his blanket ban on any deals with Chega, his government has been accused of pandering to the far right after it announced the expulsion of 18,000 irregular migrants during the election campaign. There has also been speculation that Montenegro’s own Social Democratic party could replace him with someone more amenable to working with Chega should he fail to deliver on Sunday.
Last time round, the AD won 80 seats to the PS’s 78, while Chega, which is led by the former TV football pundit André Ventura, enjoyed a surge in support and increased its seat count from 12 to 50.
