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Donald Trump’s social media post insisting Ukraine must immediately start peace talks with Russia has set back, and possibly jeopardised, Europe’s carefully laid plans to persuade the US to impose sanctions on Moscow for refusing the US president’s proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, European diplomats have said.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy had no choice but to accept Vladimir Putin’s invitation to talks in Istanbul on Thursday for fear of offending Trump, diplomats said. Putin made the offer in a bid not to alienate the US president, and avoid the growing European pressure on Trump to impose harsher sanctions. Western diplomats say they have no reason to believe that Trump acted in collusion with the Russian leader.
The leaders of Britain, France, Germany and Poland had for the first time gone together to Kyiv at the weekend to underline the call for a 30-day ceasefire that they said should start on Monday.
The aim of the visit by Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz and Donald Tusk was to put pressure on Trump to admit that Putin was stalling, and that the US had no political option but to put swingeing economic sanctions on Russia.
The Republican senator Lindsey Graham has prepared a sanctions package that has broad congressional support.
Foreign ministers had also been in Lviv on Friday in a bid to put pressure on Russia, including by saying plans existed to try Russian leaders for the crime of aggression in front of a special tribunal. The UK had announced further sanctions on the Russian shadow fleet.
Partly due to Trump’s intervention, the UK has now postponed further measures due to be announced on Monday, but the EU is continuing with its plans for another package of sanctions later this month. A German government spokesman said on Monday that the EU would begin working on the sanctions if there was not a ceasefire by the end of the day.
The gamechanger, however, would be extra US sanctions, not just because of the economic impact, but also due to the political symbolism in Trump acknowledging that Putin has been the chief obstacle to a settlement.
On Sunday, Trump issued a statement on his Truth Social website blaming both Russia and Ukraine for his ceasefire plan not coming into being. He said Ukraine should agree to meet Russia immediately. “At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible,” Trump wrote. “If it is not, European leaders, and the US, will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly!” Trump said he was “starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin”.
European chiefs, meeting in London on Monday, are waiting to see if Putin will himself go to Istanbul to hold talks with Zelenskyy, a leader that he does not recognise as legitimate.
In the previous round of talks in Turkey in 2022, the Russia foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, led the Russian delegation. Putin’s attendance might be a sign that he recognises he is under real pressure from Trump.
The Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, on Monday did not directly answer questions on talks with Zelenskyy, saying instead the Kremlin was “focused on a serious search for ways to achieve a long-term peaceful settlement”. Peskov also criticised what he called EU “ultimatums” over Ukraine in a conference call with reporters. “The language of ultimatums is unacceptable to Russia, it is not appropriate. You cannot talk to Russia in such a language,” he said.
On Monday Trump suggested Putin would attend and that he himself might take part. “You may have a good result out of the Thursday meeting in Turkey … and I believe the two leaders are going to be there. I was thinking about flying over. I don’t know where I am going be on Thursday, I’ve got so many meetings … There’s a possibility there I guess if I think things can happen.”
A key demand, backed by Europe, will be that Putin stops prevaricating about the 30-day ceasefire.
Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, will also be in Turkey on Thursday for an informal summit on overall Nato defence spending, but European ministers intend to discuss their view that Russia’s terms for a peace deal effectively involve the dismemberment of Ukraine.
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It is likely that some European officials will also be in Istanbul to ensure the Ukraine negotiating team are ready for potentially pivotal talks for which there has been comparatively little preparation.
If Putin is seen to be delaying a ceasefire, or the talks break down in Istanbul, the aim will be to go back to Trump and urge him to recognise Putin is not interested in a just peace, and only Ukrainian capitulation.
European foreign ministers meeting in London tried in public to brush off the significance of the Trump intervention, continuing to say there can be no real negotiations without a full ceasefire.
The new German foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, said on Monday: “It has been clearly articulated that, initially, there is a truce. Ukraine is ready for that. Germany now expects Russia to agree to a ceasefire and then be prepared to negotiate.”
The Italian foreign minister, Antonio Tajani, said: “What we are seeing from Moscow is not promising. He’s trying to gain time and possibly occupy more Ukrainian territories.”
Kaja Kallas, the EU head of foreign policy, said: “To start peace talks, there must be a ceasefire We must put pressure on Russia because it is playing a game.”
Zelenskyy’s strategy ever since the disastrous public falling out with Trump and his vice-president, JD Vance, in the Oval Office, has been as much as possible to stay close to Trump’s demands, fearing that if he does not Trump will pull the plug on US support for Ukraine, something that has not yet happened.
Maria Zakharova said Ukraine had “misread” Putin’s statement. The Russian foreign ministry spokesperson told state newswire Tass: “Putin said it very clearly: negotiations about the initial reasons [for the war] first, then a conversation about a ceasefire.” Russia’s demands include a bar on Nato membership for Ukraine and recognition of Putin’s annexation of four south-eastern regions, as well as an end to western military support for Kyiv.
