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A million smokers a year in England try to quit by employing methods with little chance of success, according to new research.
Almost half (49%) of all those trying to give up greatly reduced their chances of success by relying on willpower or over-the-counter nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products such as gum and patches.
The strategies used by the rest of would-be-quitters – including e-cigarettes, the drug varenicline and heated tobacco products – are much more likely to work, researchers say.
The findings, by a team led by Dr Sarah Jackson of University College London, have prompted calls for help services to encourage quitters to use the most successful methods. This also include websites, face-to-face behavioural support and NRT if it has been prescribed by a doctor.
Just under 2 million smokers in England aged 16 or over tried to give up in 2024 – almost 40% of everyone who still lights up. However, the numbers using the most and least effective methods to help them quit were split almost 50/50, Jackson and her colleagues found.
They analysed how 25,094 smokers in England had tried to quit last year and the outcomes they achieved. According to their findings, which have been published in JAMA Network and were funded by Cancer Research UK: “While a range of effective smoking cessation aids are available in England, many people tried to quit using less effective forms of support or none at all.
“Quit success rates could be improved by encouraging people to use more effective methods.”
Two in five of all would-be quitters go it alone and try to quit without using any type of support. It is one of the most popular methods smokers use but one of the least effective.
“While it’s possible to quit “cold turkey”, attempts to stop smoking are much more likely to be successful if they involve the use of evidence-based support,” said Jackson.
“Quitting smoking is like having two dice and trying to roll two sixes. It’s possible to do – some people manage it on their first attempt – but most are unsuccessful.
“When people use the most effective smoking cessation methods, it’s like one of the dice is taken away. Now they only have to roll one six, so they are more likely to be successful.”
The proportion of smokers who try to quit each year has risen from 29% in 2019 to 38% last year. The success rate increased over the same period, from 14.2% to 27.1%.
Dr Ian Walker, CRUK’s executive director of policy, urged ministers to commit to funding stop-smoking services until the end of this parliament in 2029.
Jackson, an expert in behavioural science, said better communication, including mass media campaigns, is needed to tell smokers which quitting methods are most likely to work.
An NHS England spokesperson said: “NHS services are helping thousands of adults every year to quit smoking and live healthier lives.
“By offering Nice-recommended personal stop-smoking support, the NHS is giving people the best chance to quit, and we are continuing to drive down smoking rates, which have dropped by more than half over the last three decades.”
The Department of Health and Social Care said: “This government is committed to helping smokers quit, through a range of support services, as well as public awareness media campaigns.
“We are investing an additional £70m for local stop-smoking services and are working to ensure all hospitals are integrating opt-out smoking cessation interventions into routine care.”
