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The internet blackout across Iran is meant to prevent protests from spreading, and observers from witnessing the crackdown on them. But it’s also emblematic of the deep uncertainty surrounding this unrest and the response of a regime under growing pressure.
Rocketing inflation and a tanking currency sparked the protests in late December. They have since broadened and spread. Videos showed thousands marching in Tehran on Thursday night and people setting fire to vehicles and state-owned buildings.
Regime opponents – not least in the diaspora – have often predicted its demise. The politically‑focused Green movement of 2009 was brutally suppressed. Ten years later, a harsh crackdown ended economically-prompted unrest. The current protests are smaller than those of the Woman, Life, Freedom movement at its 2022 peak. But they began in parts of society that have been more supportive of the regime, and have quickly escalated, with some participants explicitly demanding its fall.
NGOs say dozens of people – including children – have already been killed. The supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, initially acknowledged “legitimate” economic demands. Now he is hardening his attack upon “saboteurs” who he says are seeking to please Donald Trump, after the US president threatened to intervene and “hit hard” if more protesters died. The head of the judiciary said the consequences for demonstrators would be “decisive, maximum and without any legal leniency”.
Yet while authorities have always managed to crush protests, they have not succeeded in addressing the causes – and they now face simultaneous internal and external threats. Their economic room for manoeuvre is more limited than ever. The supreme leader is 86 years old and has suffered poor health. Iran’s axis of resistance is severely degraded and June’s 12-day war with Israel – plus the US attack on nuclear facilities – shattered the belief that the regime could provide physical security for its people even though it failed them economically. It no longer looks impregnable.
Following his reckless and illegal seizure of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, Mr Trump’s threats may give the leadership some pause for thought. But they have also allowed it to delegitimise Iranian citizens with genuine, deeply held grievances as the pawns of foreign aggressors.
Flush with victory from the Venezuela decapitation, Mr Trump seems to believe that there are easy wins from foreign intervention. Benjamin Netanyahu has talked up the possibility that “Iranian people are taking their fate into their own hands” and has a history of persuading the US president into reckless and dangerous ventures. An Iran embroiled in domestic chaos would suit the Israeli prime minister well. But Iranian civilians and others in the region would pay the price.
Destabilisation might lead to an entrenchment, not weakening, of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’s power. Iran’s defence council this weeksignalled that it could take preemptive military action if it saw “objective signs of threat” from the US and Israel. That attempt to restore deterrence might be bluster – but shows that the region is entering a riskier era. Whether the regime persists or is gradually approaching the end of the road, there can be no easy exit. Those who claim they want to help, while cynically seeking to exploit the legitimate grievances of Iranian citizens for their own ends, only risk more bloodshed and suffering.
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