UK politics live: vote on assisted dying bill impossible to predict, says minister

Russia plotting to use AI to enhance cyber-attacks against UK, minister will warn

Russia and other adversaries of the UK are trying to use artificial intelligence to enhance cyber-attacks against the nation’s infrastructure, Pat McFadden, the Cabinet Office minister, will warn at a Nato conference in London later today. Dan Sabbagh has the story.

Good morning. There is plenty happening today. Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, and Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, are both speaking at the CBI conference, where the CBI chief executive Rain Newton-Smith is warning about the impact of the budget on business. Keir Starmer is hosting a meeting at Downing Street about plans to protect women from spiking. “My government was elected on a pledge to take back our streets, and we will never achieve this if women and girls do not feel safe at night,” he says. There will be tributes to John Prescott in the Commons this afternoon. But one issue is going to dominate the week, the vote on the assisted dying bill on Friday, and already that is a big topic of discussion.

Jess Phillips, the minister for safeguarding and violence against women and girls, has been giving interviews this morning and she told the Today programme she is finding it impossible to predict if the bill will pass the second reading vote. She said:

We do not know how this vote is going to go. I literally couldn’t call it for you at the moment …

Each week I think a different thing. Last week I thought it wouldn’t [pass]. This week I think it might. Honestly, I’ve learned over the years not to try and second guess parliament.

Phillips is not the only person finding the vote hard to call. Eleanor Langford from the i has been keeping a tally of how MPs intend to vote and last night she published her figures on social media.

I should underline that these figures are *not* a prediction of the vote, but an interesting look at the direction MPs are leaning

With 291 MPs not stating a view at the time of writing, the vote very easily could go either way

We’ll know the actual result on Friday afternoon

According to Janet Eastham’s story in the Daily Telegraph today, supporters of the bill think it will pass – provided MPs who have said they support it are willing to vote for it.

A source close to the MPs campaigning in favour of legalisation told The Telegraph: “If all the MPs who have said they support the Bill turn out and vote for it, then it will pass.”

When MPs last voted on assisted dying, in 2015, the bill was easily defeated by 330 votes to 118. After the election many people assumed that the Labour landslide, and the drastic change in the composition of parliament, meant that there is now a majority for assisted dying. But in recent weeks there have been indications that opponents of the bill are gaining ground, in part because Wes Streeting, the health secretary, and Shabana Mahmood, the justice secretary (the two cabinet ministers who would have most responsibility for implementing assisted dying) have come out against it forcefully.

In interviews this morning Phillips said she would be voting for assisted dying, as she did in 2015. She also rejected the suggestion that Mahmood’s criticism of the bill could be disregarded because it was motivated by religion (something Charlie Falconer, the former Labour lord chancellor, suggested yesterday). Asked if it was wrong for Mahmood to impose her faith on others, Phillips said:

She will make the decision about how she votes on assisted dying on a matter of conscience, just exactly like I will. How she comes to that and what moral code she uses to come to that will be exactly the same as the moral code that I use to come to that decision as well …

I think that Shabana is making a decision on what she thinks is best for her constituents, like every constituency MP.

Here is the agenda for the day.

Morning: Keir Starmer hosts a meeting in Downing Streeting on measures to protect women from spiking.

10.05am: Rain Newton-Smith, the CBI chief executive, speaks at the start of the CBI’s annual conference.

After 11am: Keir Starmer is due to be interviewed on ITV’s This Morning.

11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

1.30pm: Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leaders, speaks at the CBI conference.

1.40pm: Pat McFadden, the Cabinet Office minister, speaks at the Nato cyber defence conference.

2.30pm: Yvette Cooper, the home secretary, takes questions in the Commons.

3.30pm: Amanda Pritchard, the NHS England chief executive, and Chris Wormald, permanent secretary at the Department of Health and Social Care, give evidence to the Commons public acccounts committee about NHS finances.

After 3.30pm: MPs are expected to pay tribute to John Prescott in the Commons following his death last week.

4.10pm: Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, takes part in a Q&A at the CBI conference.

5pm (UK time): John Healey, the defence secretary, speaks at a press conference with his German, French, Polish and Italian counterparts after they hold a meeting in Berlin.

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