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The US has stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine after Donald Trump’s suspension of military aid on Monday, in another serious blow to Kyiv in the war with Russia.
White House officials indicated that both bans could be lifted if peace talks make progress.
Ukrainian officials suggested the US would no longer provide information about targets inside Russia, hindering Ukraine’s ability to carry out effective long-range drone strikes.
This would also leave Ukraine in the dark over the movements of Russian strategic bomber aircraft and the launches of ballistic missiles.
There were conflicting reports about whether the shut-off covered the activities of Russia’s army in occupied areas of Ukraine.
One source told the Guardian that the US had “completely stopped” providing intelligence, including to Ukraine’s military and domestic security agencies. They said this would have a “very bad impact” on the fight against Russia.
The White House national security adviser, Mike Waltz, said Trump would consider restoring aid to Ukraine if peace talks were arranged and confidence-building measures taken. Discussions were ongoing with Ukraine over a date and place for talks, he told Fox News.
Speaking on Wednesday in his nightly address Volodymyr Zelenskyy said there had been “positive movement” in cooperation with the US. Results were expected next week involving a future meeting between the two sides, he added.
Ukraine’s president is seeking to repair relations with the US after his acrimonious meeting on Friday with Trump and his vice-president, JD Vance, during which Trump publicly berated Zelenskyy and accused him of not wanting a deal with Russia.
On Tuesday, Zelenskyy wrote a conciliatory letter. It said he was committed to negotiations and ready to work with America under Trump’s “strong leadership”.
In a speech to Congress on Tuesday night, Trump called the letter “important” and said: “I appreciate that he sent this letter … Simultaneously, we’ve had serious discussions with Russia and have received strong signals that they are ready for peace. Wouldn’t that be beautiful?”
Waltz described the message on Wednesday as a “good, positive first step”. He said: “We’re already talking about confidence-building measures that we’ll then take to the Russians and test that side.” If the negotiations were “nailed down”, Trump would “take a hard look at lifting this pause”, Waltz said.
Ukrainian commentators expressed scepticism that a deal could be easily and swiftly reached. They pointed out that the White House had so far asked no concessions of Russia and appeared willing to accept Vladimir Putin’s demands undiluted.
Putin has called on Ukraine to give up territory, reduce the size of its military and accept “neutrality” under a new government. Last week Zelenskyy said Ukraine needed security guarantees before it could sign a deal – something an infuriated Trump categorically ruled out.
Speaking to Fox, the CIA director, John Ratcliffe, confirmed the intelligence freeze. He expressed confidence that the “pause” on the “intelligence and military front” was temporary and would “go away”. He added: “I think we’ll work shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine as we have, to push back on the aggression that’s there.”
Keir Starmer’s spokesperson said they could not comment on intelligence matters. They said the UK had been clear it would do everything it could to put Ukraine in the strongest position.
Experts said the impact of US restrictions on intelligence sharing would depend partly on what precisely had been stopped, and they emphasised that Kyiv was already more capable than Washington appreciated.
One western expert familiar with Ukraine’s conduct of the war said Kyiv already made heavy use of open-source and human intelligence to identify Russian targets and was not particularly dependent on the US for targeting information.
Giving an example, the person said “oil refineries don’t move”, citing a frequent target of Ukrainian long range-drone attacks. “Donald Trump might be surprised to find that when he pulls the levers they have little impact,” they added.
The restrictions would not prevent the UK and other countries from carrying on as before. Wider restrictions on intelligence sharing, such as refusing to share intercepts that provide clues as to Russian strategic intentions or military plans, would have a greater effect.
In February 2022, US intelligence told Ukraine that Russia was trying to seizure Hostomel airport north-west of Kyiv. The location’s defences were reinforced. Russia was never able to securely capture the airstrip, which it had intended to use to fly in large numbers of troops to take control of the Ukrainian capital.
A Ukrainian defence official acknowledged that a cut-off would be damaging. “We need satellite data to carry out deep strikes. It enables us to identify [Russian] targets and to guide our drones,” he said.
As part of his attempt to move on from the Oval Office row, Zelenskyy has offered to sign a minerals deal with the US. Trump has described the agreement as an economic backstop. The presence of US workers on the ground in Ukraine would deter Russia from attack, he argues.
A senior official in Kyiv said Ukraine was aware of its precarious position and doing everything it could to fix relations with the US. However, some Ukrainian observers believe Ukrainian concessions will not work and think Washington has definitively swapped sides in the war and is actively helping the Kremlin.
The journalist Kristina Berdynskykh wrote that Trump’s team was humiliating and threatening Ukraine while not applying any pressure to Putin. “Now every day there is some bad news for Ukraine from the US. And so far, there is no bad news for Russia, but the opposite,” she said.
Since US and Russian negotiators began peace talks in Saudi Arabia, the Kremlin has stepped up its attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid and civilian infrastructure. It sent a record 267 drones on the third anniversary last month of its full-scale invasion. Another 181 were launched on Wednesday, together with three missiles. A 73-year-old man was killed in the Odesa region and 20 private houses were damaged.
