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It is an image that, had it been published just a few years ago, would have been dismissed as a piece of mischievous photo-shopping: the leaders of Russia and China, accompanied by the head of a pariah regime whose mission to arm his country with nuclear weapons had been opposed at the United Nations by his two companions.
But dramatic shifts in the geopolitical landscape – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and, crucially, the re-election of Donald Trump – have combined to bring Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un together in what many observers are calling a dramatic redrawing of the global balance of power.
On Wednesday morning, the three men led a group of more than 20 world leaders as they strode towards a rostrum in Tiananmen Square in Beijing to watch a “victory day” parade marking the end, eight decades ago, of a global conflict that would soon usher in the first cold war.
When Wednesday’s celebrations end, however, the regimes in Beijing, Moscow and Pyongyang will be left to confront significant domestic challenges that might yet shift their focus from global power politics.
China’s economy – the world’s second-biggest after the US – is stalling, amid deflationary pressure, slow growth and a collapsing property sector. Russia is refusing to take steps to end its war with Ukraine that has been raging – with mounting losses on both sides – for more than three years.
While North Korea’s economy grew at its fastest pace in eight years in 2024, according to South Korea’s central bank, the uptick was not down to a shift in Kim’s approach but a knock-on effect of his decision to sell huge quantities of missiles and ammunition to Russia. While Kim sizes up the prospects for more engagement with the South’s new liberal president, Lee Jae-myung, his country’s economic prospects are heavily dependent on the course of an unpredictable conflict taking place thousands of kilometres away.
While Xi and Putin have declared a “limitless” partnership, analysts say Beijing is rankled by Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine, and North Korea’s direct support of it. Xi is striving to balance his alliance with both nations, while at the same time avoiding further sanctions from the US and other allies of Ukraine.
There is a chance, of course, that Wednesday’s optics will focus the minds of Trump and other western leaders. While he was not on the guest list, the US president indicated he was following events in the Chinese capital.
In a barbed post on Truth Social, Trump reminded Xi of the US’s role in defeating Japan 80 years ago, adding: “May President Xi and the wonderful people of China have a great and lasting day of celebration. Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against The United States of America.”
Such was the potent symbolism attached to the first-ever meeting between Xi, Putin and Kim that it threatened to overshadow the huge military parade snaking through the streets of the Chinese capital.
The images coming out of Beijing prove that the “axis of upheaval”, with Xi forming its nucleus, has moved beyond hypothesis and into the messy realm of realpolitik.
Just how a striking photo op will translate into action remains to be seen, but the leaders in capitals from Washington and London to Tokyo and Seoul must surely be looking on with a mixture of curiosity and alarm.
