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French stock market rises despite political crisis, bond yields creep higher
In the markets, the FTSE 100 index has edged 0.2% higher while Germany’s Dax gained 0.15% and Italy’s FTSE MiB rose by 0.5%.
France’s CAC climbed by 0.7%, despite political turmoil in the country. French president Emmanuel Macron is seeking his fifth prime minister in less than two years, after centre-right PM François Bayrou was ousted in a confidence vote on Monday, as expected. This toppled his minority government.
Bayrou had called the vote himself as a last-ditch gamble for support, saying he needed backing from parliament for austerity measures to reduce the public debt.
The yield, or interest rate, on French government bonds is creeping higher, amid concerns over France’s ability to get to grips with its high debt.
Asian stock markets were mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei losing 0.4% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 1.1%.
Japan’s prime minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned over the weekend, and Sanae Takaichi, a veteran of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party and a fiscal dove, has decided to run in the party’s leadership race, the news agency Kydo reported.
The dollar has sunk to a seven-week low against other major currencies, with markets betting on an interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve next week.
Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Britzman said:
A quiet Monday masks a big week ahead for US markets, with the Nasdaq hitting an all-time high as tech and retail led a modest rebound. The S&P 500 added 0.5%, while the Russell 2000 lagged after its recent run. Treasury yields continued their descent, with the 10-year near 4%, its lowest in five months, and the 2-year hovering around 3.5%, levels last seen in 2022.
Markets are fully priced for a 25bps cut [from the Fed] this month, and expect more to come. With PPI, CPI [inflation], and a key labour revision on deck, plus long-term inflation expectations holding steady, the Fed has room to manoeuvre. But the data will dictate how far and fast easing goes.
Brent crude oil climbed above $66 a barrel this morning, still buoyed by news that OPEC+ opted for a modest 137,000 bpd output hike, far smaller than recent increases. Geopolitical risk added support, with Trump threatening tougher sanctions on Russia after its heaviest strikes on Ukraine since the war began. Gains were capped, however, as Saudi Arabia cut prices for Asian buyers, underscoring demand concerns.
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said:
Anglo American’s merger with Teck Resources is its latest strategic pivot that cements copper at the heart of its portfolio. With over 70% copper exposure and a top-five global position, the combined group is positioned to ride the structural demand story tied to electrification and energy transition.
The $800m in annual cost synergies and $1.4bn EBITDA uplift from Chilean asset integration are compelling. But the real prize is growth optionality, leveraging a pipeline of brownfield and greenfield projects across the Americas. For Anglo investors, the $4.5bn special dividend sweetens the near-term picture, while the long-term upside hinges on execution and a green light from the regulator. Back-of-the-hand maths suggests Teck holders are getting a healthy premium from the deal, and shares of the Canadian miner have soared in after-hours trading.
Teck shares jumped by nearly 24% in after-hours trading as speculation swirled that the companies were close to a deal after a Bloomberg News article.
The Anglo American share price has jumped by 5.2% in early trading in London, making it the biggest riser on the FTSE 100 index.
This gives the mining company a market value of £28.4bn.
Other miners such as Glencore and Antofagasta are also among the main risers, up by more than 2%.
Mélanie Joly, Canada’s industry minister, said on X:
Introduction: Anglo American agrees mining mega merger; Londoners face commuting struggles as tube strike enters second day
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
The London-listed miner Anglo American is to merge with Canada’s Teck Resources, in a deal that will create a $53bn (£39bn) giant but raises fears of job cuts.
It is the biggest mining deal in more than a decade. The FTSE 100 company said it had agreed a merger deal to create a “global critical minerals champion” and one of the world’s biggest copper producers. The combined market value of both companies is more than $53bn.
Global demand for copper is expected to keep rising, driven by the electric vehicle boom and AI-powered data centres.
Billed as a “merger of equals”, the new mining group, called Anglo Teck, will be headquartered in Vancouver, Canada, and have corporate offices in London and Johannesburg. It will have its main listing on the London Stock Exchange, with secondary listings in Toronto, South Africa and New York.
Anglo shareholders will own 62.4% of the combined company and Teck the remaining 37.6%. The deal is expected to lead to annual pre-tax savings of $800m by the end of the fourth year.
Around $60m of savings will come from “de-duplication and rationalisation of board, executive leadership and other costs associated with a listed company” and $150m from removing other overlapping functions, raising the prospect of job cuts. There won’t be any net reduction in employees in Canada, the companies said.
Duncan Wanblad, the Anglo chief executive, who will move to Canada along with the rest of the leadership team, said:
We are all committed to preserving and building on the proud heritage of both companies, both in Canada, as Anglo Teck’s natural headquarters, and in South Africa where our commitment to investment and national priorities endure.
There’s more misery for London commuters today as tube strikes enter a second day, and unlike yesterday, the Docklands Light Railway isn’t running today.
Industrial action by the RMT union has brought almost the entire tube network to a standstill, and buses and the Elizabeth line were taking the strain yesterday.
More congestion is expected today as more people still typically work from home on Mondays and Fridays.
A union organiser told the BBC yesterday that said there could be more industrial action after this week, but they hope to be in ‘meaningful discussions’ with Transport for London by the end of this week. Jared Wood said:
We have a mandate that lasts for six months under industrial relations law and our members have told us they’re ready to take more action.
But that’s not what we want to be doing. At the end of this week we hope to be in meaningful discussions where the company says, ‘alright let’s come up with a way of resolving this’.
The union’s demands include better pay and access to a travel card which gives holders ticket deals at Legoland, Thorpe Park and Chessington World of Adventures, as well as guided tours of Buckingham Palace, according to the Daily Telegraph. The rail staff leisure card gives 75% off all mainline train tickets outside London.
TfL has made a pay offer of 3.4%, which it urged the union to put to its members in a fresh ballot. It has said it cannot meet demands to cut hours below the current 35 a week.
Bike rental surged yesterday as Londoners took to two wheels. TfL’s cycle hire scheme had more than 20,000 hires by 3pm, double the previous Monday’s rate. The e-bike rental company Lime said it had 58% more users on Monday morning, while rival Forest said it had doubled its rush-hour usage.
The Agenda
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All day: TUC Congress in Brighton
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9.15am BST: Treasury committee hearing on motor finance with FCA CEO Nikhil Rathi and chairman Ashley Adler
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10am BST: EFRA hearing with water minister Emma Hardy
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10am BST: UK Treasury gilt 2043 auction
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10.30am BST: Germany 10-year Bund auction
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3pm BST: US Non-farm Payrolls annual revision
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4.15pm BST: Bank of England deputy governor Sarah Breeden speech
