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Manchester United’s nine victories from 10 Premier League games at Old Trafford in 2026 cast their stadium as a fortress Manchester City aim to ransack on Sunday, to join Leeds in departing with three points during this calendar year.
Michael Carrick has overseen the division’s highest home points-per-game return in that span: 2.7, ahead of Arsenal’s 2.27 (from 12 matches) and Manchester City’s 2.25 (11); and his side have scored the most goals: 26, to City’s 23, and the champions’ 20.
When Enzo Maresca’s side motor across town, the 199th edition of a local squabble that draws a riveted global audience will be as febrile as ever – on and off the pitch.
A United fan group, the 1958, has called for a “peaceful protest” before kick-off, starting at a pub near the stadium, against what it believes is disproportionate action in the club’s drive to eradicate ticket touting. United said on Friday that 685 accounts had been subject to a ban and 464 supporters had received a reduced sanction or final warning.
Then, when the whistle blows, United will attempt to end City’s perfect start of four victories in all competitions, improve a disappointing return of four points from three league games and repeat the opening result of Carrick’s second interim tenure, achieved in January four days after his appointment: a 2-0 downing of Pep Guardiola’s visitors in which Bryan Mbeumo and Patrick Dorgu were on target.
A 2-1 defeat by Leeds on 13 April is the sole blemish on United’s league record at Old Trafford since. The sequence shows how impressive Carrick’s stewardship has been and last month’s 5-2 hammering of Ipswich came in his first home game as the permanent manager.
Scan the results of his 10 away league games and you find four wins (at Arsenal, Everton, Chelsea and Brighton), four draws (West Ham, Bournemouth, Sunderland and Everton) and two defeats (Newcastle and Hull): 16 points from 30, compared with 27 from 30 when United play in front of their crowd.
A major factor behind the home record is easy to identify: Bruno Fernandes. In the 10 Old Trafford games the 31-year-old has provided 10 assists and scored five times. Without the captain Carrick’s team would surely struggle, as his hat-trick against Ipswich underlined.
Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha have been key support acts, scoring four goals each (Cunha also has two assists), and Benjamin Sesko has impressed with five goals at an average of one every 70.8 minutes.
United’s rearguard is the achilles heel: 13 goals conceded in the 10 home matches (Arsenal have allowed seven, City nine) is hardly parsimonious, so on Sunday the visitors will hope to prosper by hogging the ball, stymieing the opportunity for fast breaks that Mbeumo, Fernandes, Cunha and Sesko thrive on, and going at pace at the creaky defence.
City did not do this enough in Tuesday’s 2-0 Champions League victory at Porto, perhaps because Elliot Anderson was stood down, and perhaps, too, because Maresca’s nascent team are in the work-in-progress phase.
Anderson has looked a natural schemer since his £116m transfer from Nottingham Forest, running contests. In last Saturday’s 1-0 win over Coventry his display was Rodri-esque: a big call, but no exaggeration as the 23-year-old sprayed passes around, snuffed out danger, demanded to be found when under pressure and showed a spurt of speed to escape traffic.
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United have their own midfield lieutenant: Kobbie Mainoo, who has started nine of the 10 home league games under Carrick, scoring once and assisting once. The match he missed? The Leeds reverse, which is surely no coincidence because the 21-year-old’s ability to mould time and space is priceless in the hurly-burly of the 100mph Premier League – as his masterclass versus Ipswich reiterated.
Harry Maguire calls the lad from Stockport United “midfield monster” so in the showdown between Mainoo and Anderson we may witness the derby’s defining battle – and the future of England’s engine room.
A United victory would send those of the red persuasion home happy, bragging rights secured in the workplace and local hostelries. But an underlying discontent will remain: at the longstanding grievance regarding the Glazers’ ownership that has haemorrhaged resources and saddled the club with a near £1.3bn debt, and at the recent initiative designed to eliminate the black market resale of tickets.
It is a worthy act but the accusation from fans is of a draconian approach. In July United began contacting supporters who used six or more devices to access accounts linked to the club or to forward tickets, on the basis this suggested the potential buying of seats to resell. Those in question were asked why multiple accounts were accessed, to identify the differing devices used, and for photo ID to prove validity.
A joint statement by six fan groups complained “of longstanding supporters who have followed Manchester United for decades, often across multiple generations of the same family, being treated as suspects”.
The dispute continues. On Tuesday the 1958 said: “Supporters are now facing serious sanctions which can remove their right to attend matches. We believe nobody should face such action without being told clearly what they are accused of and being shown the evidence used to justify it. If there is clear, substantive evidence of serious wrongdoing or organised ticket touting, show it. No loyal supporter should be treated as guilty without being given a fair opportunity to understand and challenge the case against them.”
United said that in addition to the sanctions and warnings, they had identified 1,617 accounts that required further review owing to “unusual activity”.
So before the derby will be the latest protest against the latest issue that shows the fracture between proud institution and proud fanbase. Against this backdrop Carrick hopes to extend United’s proud home record – which viewed through the prism of the disconnect between club and supporters is particularly impressive.
