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Japan is planning to deploy long-range missiles on its southern island of Kyushu amid concerns around the Trump administration’s stance towards its security pacts and continuing regional tensions.
The missiles, with a range of about 1,000km, would be capable of hitting targets in North Korea and China’s coastal regions, and are due to be deployed next year in two bases with existing missile garrisons. They would bolster the defences of the strategically important Okinawa island chain and are part of Japan’s development of “counterstrike capabilities” in the event it is attacked, according to reports from Kyodo News agency, citing government sources.
Deployment of long-range missiles on the Okinawa islands, which stretch to within 110km of Taiwan, is unlikely to happen, to avoid provoking China. The islands already house a number of missiles batteries with shorter ranges.
“As the threat from the China and North Korea has been mounting, it is natural for Japan to counter this with more effective weapons systems,” said Yoichi Shimada, professor emeritus at Fukui Prefectural University. “I think Japan should rapidly take measures such as the deployment of longer-range missiles to develop more robust security.”
On 6 March, the US president, Donald Trump, complained that the Japan-US security treaty was nonreciprocal: “We have a great relationship with Japan, but we have an interesting deal with Japan that we have to protect them, but they don’t have to protect us,” adding, “That’s the way the deal reads … and by the way, they make a fortune with us economically. I actually ask who makes these deals?”
The treaty was first signed in 1951, when Japan was still occupied by US forces. Japan’s ability to take military action is restricted by the pacifist article 9 of its constitution, which was effectively imposed on it by Washington after the second world war.
Shimada believes that “proactive measures” such as boosting its missile systems will strengthen US-Japan ties, and that “demands from the Trump administration for reciprocal defence arrangements with Japan are not so unreasonable”.
However, Trump’s pronouncements on allies and fellow Nato members, including Canada and Denmark, have some in Japan concerned about his administration’s commitment to honouring longstanding treaties, according to Robert Dujarric of Temple University in Tokyo.
“It is clear to anyone who is watching this carefully that the US-Japan alliance is in bad shape,” said Dujarric. “Even if China attacked Japan, there is no guarantee that the US under Trump would do anything. That is a big problem.”
Two ground self-defense force (GSDF) bases are being considered for the new missiles, Camp Yufuin in Oita, and Camp Kengun in Kumamoto, both on Kyushu and already home to missile batteries. The new weapon systems are reported to be upgraded versions of the GSDF’s Type-12 land-to-ship guided missiles.
“This is just one part of a gradual increase in Japanese military capacity,” said Dujarric, who believes the country “needs to rethink its security policy” in light of the shifting geopolitical landscape.
Despite having been largely taboo in the 80 years since the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, if Japan feels it can no longer rely on US military support, that would “spark debate as to whether to acquire nuclear weapons”, suggested Dujarric.
