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The 5.30pm kick-off between West Ham and Bournemouth has just ended goalless. That result means Newcastle can leap into eighth place with a win tonight. A draw would move them above Everton into ninth. Their worst-case scenario doesn’t bear thinking about: a defeat by four goals or more would let Sunderland take their tenth-place spot without having to do a single thing.
Meanwhile we already knew what’s at stake for Manchester City this evening: a win and they’ll move to within two points of Arsenal at the top.
… and at the very real risk of belabouring the point to the extreme annoyance of Newcastle fans … here’s a reminder of what happened when the two teams met here just 18 days ago in the second leg of the League Cup semi-finals. We’ll stop this now.
That aforementioned 16-game winning run in this particular fixture isn’t the only statistic skewing hope in Manchester City’s favour. They’re unbeaten in 21 stagings of this match, and in English top-flight history, that’s a winning home run only bettered by Everton, who had the hex over Fulham at Goodison for a 22-match sequence between 1961 and 2018. That record could be equalled tonight.
There’s also the fact that City have scored in every single one of their last 34 matches against Newcastle. That’s a run that puts them joint-third on the following all-time list.
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Chelsea against Newcastle United: 37 games between 1933 and 1969
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Tottenham Hotspur against Newcastle United: 35 games between 1922 and 1961
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Everton against Blackburn Rovers: 34 games between 1925 and 1962
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Manchester City against Newcastle United: 34 games between 2007 and 2025 (ongoing)
Newcastle have made a habit of this sort of carry-on. So there’s a lot at stake for the stats nerds this evening. Never mind City’s title hopes, Newcastle’s outside chance of finishing in the Champions League spots, etc.
Both teams are in if-it-ain’t-broke mode. Manchester City name the same starting XI from their last Premier League match, the 3-0 home win over Fulham, with one exception: Omar Marmoush comes in for Phil Foden, who drops to the bench.
Newcastle also make one change. This is from their actual last game, the 6-1 Champions League romp at Qarabag. Jacob Ramsey replaces Harvey Barnes, who is named as a sub.
The teams
Manchester City: Donnarumma, Nunes, Dias, Guéhi, Ait-Nouri, Rodri, Silva, O’Reilly, Semenyo, Marmoush, Haaland.
Subs: Trafford, Reijnders, Stones, Cherki, Gonzalez, Savinho, Khusanov, Foden, Lewis.
Newcastle United: Pope, Trippier, Thiaw, Burn, Hall, Ramsey, Willock, Tonali, Willock, Woltemade, Gordon.
Subs: Ruddy, Ramsdale, Joelinton, Barnes, Osula, J Murphy, A Murphy, Shahar, Neave.
Referee: Thomas Bramall
VAR: James Bell
Preamble
The conditions are perfect; the maths work out just so. If Eddie Howe wants to perform a Vitas Gerulaitis tribute act at 10pm tonight, it’s all there waiting for him. Because you’ll recall the Lithuanian Lion’s gloriously self-deprecating zinger upon snapping a 16-match losing streak against Jimmy Connors in 1980 …
And let that be a lesson to you all. No one beats Vitas Gerulaitis 17 times in a row.
… and Newcastle United have lost on each of their last 16 Premier League visits to the Etihad. So yes, all of the pieces are there, waiting to fall elegantly into place. And while it’s true that history is on the side of Manchester City, and that Pep Guardiola’s team are desperate for all three points with the title race back on, Newcastle won the corresponding fixture at St James’ Park three months ago, so breaking this long miserable sequence is far from a pipe dream. Kick-off is at 8pm GMT, and if the Toon get at least a point tonight, Howe simply has to go there. He’ll never get another chance to reference one of the great sporting bons mots. It’s on!
