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Voters in Canada’s most populous province head to the polls on Thursday to elect a new premier who may have to face the task of preserving Ontario’s economy in the face of punishing US trade tariffs.
Doug Ford, the Progressive Conservative party leader who has been the province’s premier since 2018, called the snap election last month, arguing that he needs a “strong mandate” to steer the province through any trade war with the US.
Ford’s opponents have argued the vote is a cynical move to distract attention from an ongoing criminal probe into how his government handled a now-rescinded plan to develop on protected lands.
Lydia Miljan, a political science professor at the University of Windsor in Ontario, said Ford had likely already been planning an election for several months.
“Doug Ford’s party was doing well in the polls … and he had obviously put forward a number of policies he wanted to be front of mind,” she said. Ford mailed out $200 rebate cheques to all Ontario residents who were up to date on their taxes, a move his opponents characterized as a gimmick for votes.
Ford emerged as a strong voice against US tariffs at a time when Justin Trudeau was trailing in the polls before his resignation, putting the premier in a position where calling an election could be advantageous for him, Miljan said.
Ford has spent the campaign wearing a “Canada Is Not for Sale” hat, visited steel plants announcing promises to protect workers from potential tariffs and travelled twice to Washington DC to make Ontario’s case against the levies.
His opponents, including Bonnie Crombie, the leader of the provincial Liberal party, and Marit Stiles, leader of Ontario’s New Democratic party, have highlighted a string of scandals during Ford’s two terms.
In 2022, Ford’s government was forced to scrap plans to allow building on protected lands in a row that led to the resignation of a provincial minister. He has also faced criticism over Ontario’s crumbling healthcare system, funding cuts to education and a housing and homelessness crisis that has seen rents skyrocket and shelter systems overflow. Both Crombie and Stiles have blamed Ford for eroding the province’s social safety net amid a cost-of-living crisis.
Turnout will be a concern, said Miljan, as only 6% of eligible voters have cast a ballot in advance polls.
“That’s unusual because, over the last several election cycles, there’s always an increase of people going to advanced polls. It’s more convenient,” she said. “This time around, it looks like it’s suppressed.”
Regardless of who wins, the government that is elected will have to be nimble and determine how to handle uncertainty as Trump continues to be unpredictable, she said.
“That will be focusing on Ontario productivity, focusing on how we can assist manufacturers and our export markets to diversify so that we’re not so heavily dependent on the American market, because that’s really made us vulnerable,” she said.
