3 hours ago
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Let me tell you a secret about the US constitution: it’s just a piece of paper. It’s not immutable law created by a higher being. It was made by men, it’s been amended by men, and it can be destroyed by men. It’s only as strong as the institutions that uphold it – institutions which Donald Trump has been systematically weakening as he expands his executive power.
I say this because there are still lots of people who have faith that the constitution can stop the US from gradually turning into an electoral autocracy like Hungary. There are still people so drunk on American exceptionalism that they think it’s ludicrous to believe Trump might seek a third term, because such a move is explicitly outlawed by the 22nd amendment of the constitution.
But the president and his cronies don’t think the idea is ludicrous. Trump has refused to rule out the idea of a third term on multiple occasions – most recently on Monday when he told reporters he “would love to do it”. And last week Trump’s former White House chief strategist, Steve Bannon, told the Economist that “there’s a plan” to get Trump a third term.
Don’t dismiss this as trolling or an attempt to shake off the “lame duck” label second-term presidents are landed with. The golden rule of Trumpism is this: no matter how illegal or unusual something may be, if Trump can figure out a way to do it, then he will. And while I think it’s extremely unlikely, there is a path to Trump 3.0. Here’s a very simplified version of how it might pan out.
Step one, obviously, is to figure out a plausible legal basis for a third term. Repealing the 22nd amendment, ratified in 1951 in response to Franklin D Roosevelt bucking tradition and serving a third term, requires approval from two-thirds of the House and Senate. Not easy. Another possibility is a constitutional convention; two-thirds of state legislatures (34 states) would need to call for a convention and any amendment would need ratification by three-quarters of state legislatures. This would also be incredibly difficult but it’s worth noting that the Heritage Foundation, which is responsible for Project 2025, are keen on holding a constitutional convention. And where there’s a will, and a lot of cash from ultra-wealthy donors, there is often a way.
Another possibility is that Trump could declare a state of emergency and postpone the 2028 election. Trump loves a good fake emergency: he’s already used at least 10 emergency declarations to justify everything from his tariffs to dispatching the National Guard to Los Angeles. Again: while this seems far-fetched, we live in extraordinary times; it shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand.
Once you’ve conjured up a legal basis (no matter how flimsy) for a third term or extended second term, you’ve got to manipulate public opinion to make it seem above board as opposed to autocratic shenanigans. Trump has already proved himself adept at chipping away at press freedom and turning elements of the US media from watchdogs to lapdogs.
Social media, as we all know, is also easily manipulated; some studies suggest one-third of the internet is now bots. Reports show that Russia and Israel have poured huge amounts of money into bot-based programs to push propaganda to US audiences. And they’re spending that money because it works: fake accounts can cause very real shifts in views. Remember the hoo-ha over the recent Cracker Barrel rebrand? Researchers think it was largely driven by bots. Now that Elon Musk owns X and TikTok is on its way to being owned by a consortium of Trump’s pals (with Barron Trump potentially sitting on the board), much of social media has been Maga-fied. It’s gone from being a place to find alternative views to a consent-manufacturing machine.
Finally, you’ve got to neutralise your opposition. Unlike the previous two steps, this is easy, since there’s no opposition. The Democrats are still floundering and trying to figure out what they stand for. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris, who appears to surround herself exclusively with sycophants, is threatening to run again in 2028. Doing so would be a gift to Trump. Gavin Newsom, a likely 2028 contender, is a more serious threat to Maga but there’s still plenty of time to do what Democrats do best and self-sabotage.
Look, I hope my fears are unfounded. I hope the Democrats seize the moment. I hope Trumpism is a temporary nightmare. But while we should hope for the best, we should be prepared for the worst. I don’t want to have to say “I told you so” from an ICE detention centre.
Arwa Mahdawi is a Guardian columnist and the author of Strong Female Lead
