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Dave Estherby points out another potential title pathway: “Verstappen can also become world champion by ramming Norris off the road.”
As mentioned below, Lewis Hamilton has been involved in his fair share of big F1 finales, but the seven-times world champion could scarcely be further from the title battle today. Hamilton ends a hugely disappointing first campaign with Ferrari 16th on the grid, after a third straight elimination in the first round of qualifying.
“I don’t have the words to describe the feeling that I have inside,” said Hamilton on Saturday. “An unbearable amount of anger and rage. There is not really much I can say about it.” The Briton’s latest setback in qualifying came after he crashed out of final practice, finishing 11 places behind teammate Charles Leclerc despite quick repairs.
Hamilton has not made the podium this season and has been out-qualified by Leclerc 19 times out of 24. Asked if he had an action plan in place to improve his dire run, he said: “Not at the moment, no. I don’t have any plans for anything.”
F1's recent final-day title battles
2007: Räikkönen wins three-way race
Despite ending up beached on his way to the pits at the previous race in China, rookie Lewis Hamilton arrived in Brazil with a four-point lead over McLaren teammate Fernando Alonso, and seven clear of Ferrari’s Kimi Räikkönen. A gearbox glitch put Hamilton in deep trouble at Interlagos, and while he recovered to finish seventh, Räikkönen won the race and the title by a point with Alonso third in São Paulo.
Final standings: Räikkönen 110, Hamilton 109, Alonso 109.
2008: Hamilton’s redemption in Brazil
Hamilton was on the brink of failure at Interlagos for a second consecutive year when championship rival Felipe Massa won for Ferrari. But, in rain-hit conditions, Hamilton passed Toyota’s Timo Glock at the final corner to finish fifth, beating Massa to the title by a single point. The Brazilian continues to pursue legal action over missing out on the title due to the ‘Crashgate’ controversy at the Singapore GP. Hamilton 98, Massa 97.
2010: Vettel snatches the crown
Now at Ferrari, Alonso headed to Abu Dhabi eight points ahead of Red Bull’s Mark Webber. The Australian’s teammate, Sebastian Vettel, was a rank outsider, 15 points off the pace. But Vettel won from pole position, and Ferrari’s calamitous strategy left Alonso stuck in seventh when the chequered flag fell. Webber finished eighth and Vettel began a streak of four consecutive world titles. Vettel 256, Alonso 252, Webber 242.
2012: More heartbreak for Alonso
Vettel’s hopes of a third straight title appeared all but over after an early tangle with Bruno Senna in Brazil, with Alonso poised to claim his third championship. The German fought back from last place to finish sixth in a rollercoaster race. Alonso finished second behind Jenson Button, missing out on the title by three points. Vettel 281, Alonso 278.
2014: Hamilton’s double delight
Double points were awarded for the first and only time at the season’s final race in Abu Dhabi as Hamilton and Mercedes teammate Nico Rosberg fought for glory. Rosberg took pole but the Briton got ahead at the first bend and romped to glory. Rosberg then suffered engine problems and ended the race in 14th place. Hamilton 384, Rosberg 317.
2016: Rosberg’s revenge
The Mercedes men battled it out again two years later at Yas Marina, but this time the German held the upper hand. Hamilton had to win and hope Rosberg finished fourth or lower; he controlled the race but Rosberg stayed clear of the pack and crossed the line in second to take the title – before retiring five days later. Rosberg 385, Hamilton 380.
2021: Verstappen’s first title
In a winner-takes-all shootout between Hamilton and Max Verstappen, who started level on points, the challenger started on pole but Hamilton cleared his rival on the first lap. A record eighth title beckoned for Hamilton but a late safety car changed the course of history. The race director, Michael Masi, allowed all the lapped cars through, leaving Hamilton exposed to Verstappen on new tyres for one final lap. Verstappen blasted past Hamilton at the fifth corner to win the race and the title in one of F1’s most dramatic and controversial moments. Verstappen 395.5, Hamilton 387.5. PA Media
Abu Dhabi GP: the grid
1 Max Verstappen (Neth) Red Bull
2 Lando Norris (GB) McLaren
3 Oscar Piastri (Aus) McLaren
4 George Russell (GB) Mercedes
5 Charles Leclerc (Mon) Ferrari
6 Fernando Alonso (Sp) Aston Martin
7 Gabriel Bortoleto (Bra) Kick Sauber
8 Esteban Ocon (Fr) Haas
9 Isack Hadjar (Fr) RacingBulls
10 Yuki Tsunoda (Jpn) Red Bull
11 Oliver Bearman (GB) Haas
12 Carlos Sainz (Sp) Williams
13 Liam Lawson (NZ) RacingBulls
14 Kimi Antonelli (It) Mercedes
15 Lance Stroll (Can) Aston Martin
16 Lewis Hamilton (GB) Ferrari
17 Alexander Albon (Thai) Williams
18 Nico Hülkenberg (Ger) Kick Sauber
19 Pierre Gasly (Fr) Alpine
20 Franco Colapinto (Arg) Alpine
Title permutations
Let’s try and keep this simple. Lando Norris leads the title race by 12 points, and will be world champion if he finishes in the top three today, regardless of what his rivals do. If the Briton drops out of the podium places, Verstappen can take the title by winning the race from pole.
Piastri has to win the race and hope Norris ends up outside the top six; if the title-race leader crashes out, things get even more complicated. There are more detailed permutations here, and this nifty (if unofficial) tool lets you play out the possibilities.
Points on offer: Winner 25pts, second place 18pts, third place 15pts;
Fourth 12pts, 5th 10pts, 6th 8pts, 7th 6pts, 8th 4pts, 9th 2pts, 10th 1pt.
Qualifying report
Here’s how Max Verstappen claimed pole for today’s race, with Lando Norris edging out teammate Oscar Piastri for a place on the front row. George Russell, an entertaining cameo player in this season’s three-horse race, sits alongside Piastri in fourth.
Preamble
After 23 races and thousands of track miles, this season’s extraordinary title race will be settled today after year of twists, turns and drama across the globe. It’s the first three-way title finale in F1 since 2010 and however it plays out, it will surely be historic.
Lando Norris is in the box seat to claim his first world title, and McLaren’s first drivers’ championship since 2008. For most of the season, teammate Oscar Piastri looked like his only competition – but Max “Chucky” Verstappen has refused to surrender his title.
From more than 100 points behind Piastri, Verstappen has clawed his way back to second place, four points above the Australian and 12 behind Norris. McLaren look worn down by the pressure, their efforts to preserve a fair title race opening the door for Red Bull.
Verstappen starts on pole here in a classic champion v challenger showdown, chasing a fifth world title in a row. Norris joins him on the front row as he bids to fulfil his destiny, while long-time leader Piastri also has faint hope of snatching back the title.
In short, it’s on. The race begins at 1pm (GMT) but we’ll have all the permutations, build-up and season highlights right here.
