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The outcome and duration of the war in the Middle East may be decided by a grim calculus based on the size of Iran’s drone and missile stocks v vital air defence munitions held by the US, Israel and Gulf states, analysts and officials say.
Since Saturday, Iran and its proxies have sought to counter the intensive joint US and Israeli offensive with more than 1,000 strikes against targets across almost a dozen countries spread over 1,200 miles. With its antiquated air force unable to compete with those of Israel and the US, Tehran has relied on its arsenal of missiles and drones.
The geographical extent of Iran’s retaliatory attacks have made the conflict the widest in the Middle East since the second world war. Israeli and US aircraft and missiles have struck hundreds of sites across Iran, without losing a plane to hostile fire.
The US and Israel are seeking to destroy as much of Iran’s missile stockpile and infrastructure as possibly, targeting launchers, stores and personnel.
Stacie Pettyjohn, the director of the defense program at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, said the conflict had become “a bit of a salvo competition”, a military strategic concept describing an exchange of simultaneous volleys of large numbers of precision-guided weapons between opposing forces.
“The question is who has the deeper magazines of key weapons, and the big unknown is how deep Iran inventories are,” Pettyjohn said.
Sirens sounded again over Jerusalem on Tuesday, with multiple explosions as interceptor missiles destroyed incoming missiles, but Iranian attacks on Israel, where 11 people have been killed and more than 100 injured since the war began, have become less frequent over the past 36 hours.
Analysts suggest Iran, where the Red Crescent said more than 787 people have been killed, may be seeking to preserve its reserves of missiles, or is simply unable to fire more.
“Iran has fewer weapons that can range Israel than hit the Persian Gulf, and a lot of drones heading to Israel are being intercepted,” said Petttyjohn.
“There may also be an amount of disarray that the Iranians are dealing with as they are suffering decapitation strikes [killing senior commanders] and so are not operating in a coordinated way. They are just getting off what they can, when they can.”
Tehran’s strategy may be to attempt to wear down its enemies by undermining the morale of citizens and raising the financial costs of the conflict.
“There is no such thing as 100% defence. It’s a war of attrition … If a single missile strikes something like a university, a hospital or a power plant it can be very costly,” said Tal Inbar, an Israel-based senior research fellow at the Missile Defence Advisory Alliance.
During the 12-day war with Iran last summer, when massive barrages of missiles were fired at Israel, crucial weapons in Israel ran low, some reports have suggested.
“In previous wars and clashes, the duration has been determined in part by the amount of [air defence missiles] that we had … You can never have enough interceptors,” Inbar said.
All involved in the current conflict recognise the significance of the bitterly contested aerial battle and are making strenuous efforts to reassure anxious citizens.
The United Arab Emirates issued a lengthy statement on Tuesday rebutting reports that it was running out of crucial interceptor missiles. “The UAE … maintains a robust strategic stockpile of munitions, ensuring sustained interception and response capabilities over extended periods,” it said.
On Monday, the UAE said it had so far destroyed 161 out of 174 ballistic missiles launched toward the country, while the rest had fallen into the sea. Of a total 689 Iranian drones, 645 were intercepted and eight cruise missiles destroyed, “causing some collateral damage”.
Iranian strikes have also been launched at US military and civilian infrastructure sites in Qatar, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain and Oman. International hotels in Dubai have been hit and set alight.
Oil infrastructure has been damaged in Saudi Arabia, and drones targeted a British military base in Cyprus.
Qatar, too, issued a statement, describing the “detection of multiple aerial and missile targets and the successful interception of the majority”. The defence ministry said it had shot down two Iranian fighter jets, three cruise missiles, 98 out of 101 ballistic missiles, and 24 out of 39 drones.
“It is very hard to know the level of inventories [of these weapons] in the Gulf but they are burning through a lot of them and soon there will be some difficult decisions to make about what to protect”, Kelly Grieco, a strategic and military analyst at the Stimson Center in Washington, said.
“The Iranians know this, and that is why their salvoes are not so large. They are aiming to keep the campaign running. It’s death by a thousand cuts, and so much the preferable strategy for the weaker [combatant] in the fight.”
Pettyjohn said that if air defences stockpiles ran out, that might push Israel and the US to stop offensive operations and try to reach some kind of negotiated settlement.
“The US could withdraw its forces, Israel clearly cannot, but it’s the Gulf states who are now bearing the brunt and they might continue to be pummelled …. If Iran runs out of missiles … they may just have to sue for peace and try to survive and eventually rebuild their capabilities over time.” Pettyjohn said.
The sheer expense of the weapons involved, and their limited availability, is also pertinent. Grieco estimates intercepting a drone costs five times more than producing one, while stockpiles of the most advanced US-made weapons are very limited and can only be replenished slowly. Such munitions are in great demand elsewhere, such as in Ukraine or Taiwan.
