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Geelong v Brisbane is the AFL grand final we had to have. The pair of modern-day powerhouses have two of the past three premierships, and are the only sides to win more than two-thirds of their games over the past six seasons.
They have already met in four finals in that stretch. Now, finally, they come together in the game that matters most. The 2025 grand final will be the first time in their 126 seasons that the Cats and Lions clash in a VFL/AFL decider. The winner at the MCG on Saturday will become the first club to claim two premierships this decade, as well as the first to secure five flags since the turn of the century.
The Lions gave their premiership defence a kickstart when they defeated the Cats in a pair of home and away games this year. The first was a stirring come-from-behind win at the Gabba. The second got their season back on track when they spoiled Patrick Dangerfield’s 350th celebrations and smashed a 22-year hoodoo on the Cats’ home deck.
Geelong turned the tables as the stakes rose in a qualifying final with a victory that was more comprehensive than the final margin might suggest. But all that is in the past – or for the record books – as Geelong and Brisbane meet for a fourth time this season, just now with grand final glory on the line.
Where the game will be won – and lost
Geelong enjoyed a favourable run home with their last six home and away games against sides that finished in the bottom half of the ladder. Rather than allowing any suggestion they were pretenders to linger, the Cats built on their form with a pair of commanding finals victories over the Lions and Hawks that rubber-stamped their premiership credentials.
The Cats topped 100 points in all eight of those wins, with Jeremy Cameron leading the way. The spearhead has booted 88 majors this season but the campaign to reach a century has been pushed aside as Geelong have again opened up multiple avenues to goal. Six Cats have booted 30 or more goals this year, while they equalled this century’s finals record with 13 goal-kickers in the victory against the Lions just three weeks ago.
The perennial contenders are especially dangerous near goal as the clock ticks down each quarter, and are +422 for points scored in time-on – a whopping 260 points better than the next best team this year. Much of the Cats’ damage comes from locking the ball forward and wearing down defenders, and they have been beaten only once for inside 50s in the second half of the season.
Brisbane will have learned a lot from their qualifying final loss and the way that Geelong was able to clamp down on their prime movers Hugh McCluggage and Cam Rayner and move the ball away from contest. The Lions have proven throughout the year, and especially in recent weeks against the Suns and Magpies, that they can overturn a dismal defeat the next time they face the same side.
Both sides like to counterattack quickly but the Lions would benefit from drawing more on their strength in chipping the ball with angled kicks to uncontested marks rather than relying so much on run-and-gun through the corridor.
Brisbane have an onball brigade to match the very best sides, while Will Ashcroft and Zac Bailey have stepped up in the past two weeks with dual Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale on the sidelines. With multiple players able to run through the midfield, they are top two in the league for clearance and clearance differential, while Geelong are ranked bang in the middle. But the Cats benefited from booting 50 points from stoppage in the qualifying final, putting the heat back on the Lions and the likes of McCluggage to bounce back and win more ball at the coalface.
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Game-shapers
Geelong: Max Holmes – The Cats have more than just attacking weapons in their forward half, as Max Holmes – as well as Bailey Smith – have not only taken over the midfield but changed the way the side plays. The tireless ball magnets help spread the field with their run and carry, with Holmes especially important in launching attacks from defence and taking them to the forward half.
Even while spending plenty of time running off half-back, Holmes is among the top-six in the league for average inside-50s while Smith is No 1. Holmes missed Geelong’s premiership three years ago when a hamstring injury late in the preliminary final cost him a spot in the side. The 22-year-old would now be more likely to be backed in even under an injury cloud, and the huge impact he has on games makes him our Norm Smith medal fancy.
Brisbane: Harris Andrews – The Lions co-captain is a one-man roadblock that opposition teams try to avoid as he leads the competition for marks, intercept marks and spoils. Andrews tends to leave the most dangerous forward for teammates to handle and is likely to line up on Shannon Neale with as much focus on winning the ball back as limiting the young gun’s influence. Neale will be called on to sacrifice his own game to pull Andrews into less impactful areas though the 28-year-old is a master of knowing when to play tight or zone off instead.
The three-time All-Australian’s ability to control the airways and release the likes of Dayne Zorko, Darcy Wilmot and Jaspa Fletcher to quickly rebound will be critical to his side’s chances of success – the Lions are undefeated this season when they outscore their opponents on turnover.
Prediction
Geelong have the edge in midfield depth – especially with Lachie Neale underdone – to control the game from the engine room and score heavily when it opens up. Their more rugged, defensively minded onballers showed three weeks ago that they can take away the Lions’ key weapons and hurt them the other way. Both sides have exciting young key forwards and plenty of X-factor in attack, while Cameron is the most formidable and most likely to kick a bag. The reigning premiers have shown they can rise to the occasion and are at their best when their backs are to the wall. But even so, we predict the Lions’ hearts will be broken in a thriller for the second time in three years.
