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Speaking at the Caerphilly byelection count, Delyth Jewell, deputy leader of Plaid Cymru, said she felt “excited and frightened”.
I still feel so excited about the campaign that we ran, I think it’s been a really energetic campaign.
I feel excited and frightened at the same time, and I wish there were a word for those things together, because there are two very starkly different scenarios ahead of us.
One of them is going to unfold in the next few hours, either we will see Plaid Cymru emerging as the party that’s won this byelection or Reform, and it’s been obvious the whole time it was one or the other.
PA Media also quoted Jewell as saying:
No matter what way this goes, it’s going to be clear to voters in Wales that the only progressive party for the future of Wales is Plaid Cymru. We are also the only party that will be able to beat Reform.
The momentum is with us, so no matter what happens in this byelection tonight, I think people’s minds will be focused.
Labour has long held the Caerphilly Senedd and Westminster constituencies but, unless opinion polling is wide of the mark, the party is likely to be beaten into third this week with either Plaid or Reform UK seizing the Welsh parliament seat.
As Steven Morris has reported, Plaid appears to be picking up Labour votes disenchanted with the party’s performance both in Cardiff and Westminster while Reform hoovers up traditional Conservative voters and those impressed by its promises to end what it calls the other two parties’ “mass immigration agenda”.
The Plaid Cymru candidate, Lindsay Whittle, who has been a local councillor for half a century, wants to win for two reasons – to further the cause of his beloved Plaid and to keep out Reform.
“Labour is facing annihilation,” he said. “The Labour tree has finally died. The roots have gone and it’s dead.”
If Labour loses in Caerphilly it will be a huge blow for the party that has dominated politics in Wales for a century. It faces an even bigger challenge next year when full Senedd elections take place.
If it loses control of the Welsh government – and Reform does well – it will be seen as a signal of political transformation in the UK.
Labour, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK braced for results of Caerphilly byelection
Hello and welcome to our live coverage as political leaders brace for the results of a byelection in Caerphilly that could mark a historic shift in Welsh politics.
Labour has run the Senedd (Welsh parliament) since the devolved administration was established in 1999, and Caerphilly has been one of its strongholds. But opposition parties hoping to form the next Welsh government have run fierce campaigns in the south Wales constituency.
In early polling before the vote, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK were forecast to be the two biggest parties in Wales next year. The result in Caerphilly could be a bellwether for the Senedd election in May and is likely to be treated as such by the victorious party.
The byelection also comes in the run-up to a vote on the next Welsh government budget, which has heaped even more pressure on the Labour campaign. When passing its budget in March, the government needed the help of an opposition member to get it through.
While Labour is the largest party in the Senedd, it does not have a majority, and the budget vote in January could be even more difficult if the party loses the Caerphilly seat.
Nigel Farage pledged to “throw everything” at the campaign in backing the Reform UK candidate, Llyr Powell. Plaid Cymru’s candidate, Lindsay Whittle, is a longstanding councillor in the Penyrheol ward and the leader of the group on Caerphilly council. The Labour candidate is Richard Tunnicliffe, a financial analyst and publisher.
The candidates fielded by other parties are Gareth Potter for the Conservatives, Gareth Hughes for the Greens, and Anthony Cook for Gwlad, a pro-independence party. Steve Aicheler is running for the Liberal Democrats and Roger Quilliam is the candidate for Ukip.
The byelection was called after the death of Hefin Wyn David, a Labour politician who was first elected in Caerphilly in 2016. There will be an inquest into his death in April.
