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Ordinarily at this point in the Formula One season, form has been settled. This year, with four meetings remaining, the title run-in reaches its decisive phase with a three-way fight between the McLarens of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri and the Red Bull of Max Verstappen. Divining the outcome is a decidedly tricky affair.
As recently as the Dutch GP in August it appeared a two-way battle between the McLaren drivers would decide it. However, with Red Bull managing to apply upgrades that have unlocked the performance of the RB21, the equation is far more complex. Their car can now be as good, if not better, than the McLaren but the margins are small and neither team can be entirely sure who will have the edge on a given weekend.
It makes for a fascinating finale, one made all the more intriguing by the human factor. Norris leads the championship by one point from Piastri, with Verstappen 36 points off the lead. Were the three protagonists on similar points it would be all but impossible not to back Verstappen’s experience and ruthless execution to see him through. As it is he still needs a little fortune in the form of DNFs or both McLarens having a terrible weekend.
In the absence of this, it is Norris who carries the experience over his teammate and has been on much better form in recent races, which has perhaps given him just enough momentum to edge him over the line.
São Paulo Grand Prix
Interlagos, 9 November
Last year’s winner Max Verstappen
The majestic, sweeping circuit in São Paulo should favour the McLaren. A mix of opening and closing fast sectors with a tight midsection, the high altitude allows teams to run a higher downforce setup. McLaren have enjoyed a strong aero-efficiency and should excel in the medium to high-speed corners on the quick sections of the Autódromo José Carlos Pace, if it is dry.
However, last year in the wet Verstappen gave another masterclass coming from 17th to win the race, in one of his greatest performances. It all but sealed his fourth title which he delivered at the next round in Las Vegas. The Red Bull is more competitive now than it was at this point last year and rain is expected over the weekend in São Paulo. With a sprint race thrown in, Brazil could once more be pivotal in turning the title race. In the wet it will be advantage Verstappen while the two McLaren drivers must ensure they make no mistakes.
Predicted winner Verstappen
Las Vegas Grand Prix
Las Vegas Strip Circuit, 23 November
Last year’s winner George Russell
The preponderance of straights on the street circuit of Vegas make for a low-downforce track and that combined with slow corners and cold temperatures all mitigate against McLaren who have had a poor record here since the race was first held in 2023. Neither driver has qualified or finished higher than sixth.
The track layout does not play to the strengths of the MCL39 and similarly the cool temperatures mitigate its tyre management advantage. Mercedes and Ferrari in contrast have found Vegas suited to their cars and they will expect to be fighting at the front once more. However, since Red Bull’s aero overhaul they have been enormously strong on the low-downforce tracks and with their ability to now run at a lower ride height too, of the title contenders Verstappen will expect to win big on the Strip.
Predicted winner Verstappen
Qatar Grand Prix
Lusail International Circuit, 30 November
Last year’s winner Verstappen
A meeting with the final sprint race of the season so another opportunity for a potential swing, McLaren would consider this very much in their wheelhouse. A fast track dominated by flowing high-speed long corners, requiring a reasonably high downforce.
Yet last year having taken a one-two in the sprint, both McLarens failed to deliver in the race. They qualified poorly and Norris was given a penalty for failing to slow under yellows in the race, taking him out of contention. Red Bull in contrast hooked up their car pretty much perfectly and Verstappen delivered. This season they would expect to at least be nipping at the heels of McLaren if not better but Norris and Piastri will expect to emerge on top in Qatar.
Predicted winner Piastri
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
Yas Marina Circuit, 7 December
Last year’s winner Lando Norris
A circuit that must be considered all but perfect for the McLaren, which may be crucial if, as expected, this fight goes to the wire. Straights and fast corners favour their aero efficiency as does the smooth surface and the absence of some of the slower, tight turns removed with the reconfiguration of 2021.
Norris won from pole last year to seal the constructors’ championship for McLaren, but again the team are unlikely to enjoy such an advantage over Red Bull this time and Verstappen has won four of the last five races in Abu Dhabi. If it is the title decider and if it is close, it may be a matter of who can hold their nerve when it counts to close it out.
Predicted winner Norris
Predicted 2025 drivers’ champion Norris
