The Breakdown | Five areas where the Australia v Lions Test series will be won and lost

Selection It may sound obvious but both sides need their key chess pieces to be in the correct places. Neither team are due to declare their hands officially until Thursday but the Lions will be well aware of Joe Schmidt’s ability to produce a tactical surprise or two. The big name to look out from an Australian perspective will be Rob Valetini, such an important cog in the Wallaby pack but injured for the recent Fiji game. If Valetini is ruled out it will be a blow to home morale; the Wallabies are going to need their main men on the field. The Lions have had their own injury problems but their back-row and centre selections will be instructive. They will be tempted to start with their most physical flanker, Tom Curry, and send out Ben Earl and/or Henry Pollock to up the tempo later. But Jac Morgan, the only Welshman left in the squad and a specialist jackler, would offer the Lions balance in more ways than one. And while it seems almost too obvious to start with Sione Tuipulotu at 12 inside Huw Jones, the case for Bundee Aki remains strong. Among other things it would enable Andy Farrell to go direct initially and then change things up for the second Test in Melbourne. Owen Farrell on the bench? The ex-England captain seems destined to have an impact on this series at some point.

Tackle area discipline If the Lions have learned one lesson on this tour it is the vital importance of the breakdown. The Wallabies have a quality ball-sniffing openside in Fraser McReight and will be keen to go hard at the rucks to disrupt the Lions’ momentum and ensure precious quick ball for their own backs. Furthermore, the referees named for this series, New Zealand’s Ben O’Keeffe, Italy’s Andrea Piardi and Georgia’s Nika Amashukeli might not necessarily have been the Lions’ first-choice triumvirate. O’Keeffe refereed the second Test against South Africa four years ago when the Lions were well beaten 27-9 while the other two are new to the unique intensity of a Lions Test series. Andy Farrell’s team have been already been working hard on reducing their penalty counts but, as the former All Black coach Ian Foster observed at the weekend, not giving the opposition an “easy out” will be crucial for both teams. “In a Lions series there’s lots of pressure and it comes down to your discipline,” warned Foster, involved with the Australia & New Zealand Invitational XV beaten 48-0 in Adelaide. “We were combative but when we got squeezed we lost our discipline. The Lions will hurt you if that happens.”

Aerial contest Is it bird or is it a plane? The chances are it will be Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, the high-flying Wallaby who can soar to heights others can only dream of reaching. As the former Australia great Tim Horan admiringly said this month: “He tackles like a leaguie, leaps like a basketballer and marks like an AFL player.” It does not take a genius, then, to imagine Schmidt identifying the aerial battle as a potential area of opportunity. How best can he manoeuvre Suaalii into positions where, as against England last November, he can rise above the herd and either reclaim crucial restarts or high bombs which would give his side field position and momentum. Regardless of the number on the 21-year-old’s back, he is going to be a pivotal figure in the series. The Wallabies also have an underrated lineout while the Lions have not reacted brilliantly so far on tour when forced to turn and retrieve balls put in behind them. Tommy Freeman is good in the air and Hugo Keenan is positionally excellent but you can still see the Wallabies being keen to go to the skies.

Finn Russell has the individual brilliance to change a game on his own. Photograph: Robbie Stephenson/PA

Individual brilliance There will never be a more dramatic start to a Lions series in Australia than there was at the Gabba in 2001. The Lions, then as now, were not wholly sure what the first Test would yield while the Wallabies had little first-hand experience of the touring side’s outstanding rugby league convert Jason Robinson. Inside the first three minutes of the game the hosts were swiftly enlightened when the little genius skinned Chris Latham down the touchline for a classic score. When Brian O’Driscoll delivered an even better solo effort in the second half it paved the way to a 29-13 win that exceeded all expectations. Anyone who watched the 2013 series will also remember George North’s finger-wagging long-range try in the first Test and the same player carrying Israel Folau down the field on his shoulders like a sack of Aussie potatoes. In short, for all the collective endeavour and tactical intelligence required to win a Lions series, there is sometimes no legislating for sheer class. Or a moment of inspiration – Matt Dawson’s overhead dummy to no one in particular in South Africa in 1997, for example – that proves the difference in otherwise tight encounters. Will it be the aforementioned Suaalii who supplies it for the Wallabies this time? Or may this be Finn Russell’s series?

Goal-kicking It is easy to forget that the last Lions series in Australia ultimately hinged on Kurtley Beale losing his footing as he went to kick the last-gasp penalty that could easily have stolen victory for the Wallabies in the first Test in 2013. The Lions sneaked home 23-21 as a consequence and Leigh Halfpenny’s remarkable marksmanship was a big factor in the series outcome. With Elliot Daly having been forced to return home prematurely, the Lions also now lack another useful part of their artillery in the drawn series against New Zealand in 2017. It places a significant onus on Russell, whose place kicking so far on tour has been splendid. And, similarly, on the Wallaby duo of Tom Lynagh and Ben Donaldson in the absence of the injured Noah Lolesio. Lynagh is still in the foothills of his career while Donaldson has had his ups and downs since missing a difficult angled late conversion on his Test debut which ensured Australia lost to Italy in Florence in 2022. Luck also plays its part. Twelve years ago the Wallabies’ goal-kicker Christian Leali’ifano was knocked out inside the first minute of the first Test and the repercussions were considerable.

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