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England’s worst-case scenario
Croatia are the highest-ranked potential Pot 2 opponents (10th) and reached the final and the semi-finalis at the past two World Cups respectively but, with a maximum of two European teams in each group, drawing them would eliminate for England the possibility of facing Erling Haaland’s Norway, who are in Pot 3, or Italy, who are in Pot 4, if the four-time champions get through the playoffs in March.
On rankings the worst-case scenario would be Croatia, Panama and Jordan, working on the basis of qualified teams. DR Congo, who are in the playoffs, are the highest-ranked potential Pot 4 team from outside Europe. Ghana could be the trickiest non-European opponents in that pot but it is worth noting that Cape Verde, another Pot 4 team and ranked four places higher, beat them at the Africa Cup of Nations last year.
A more worrying prospect for England could be drawing Morocco, Norway (or Scotland given the rivalry) and Jordan. Europe is the only confederation allowed two teams in a group so drawing Morocco would end the prospect of having to play Mohamed Salah’s Egypt, a Pot 3 team, Ghana or, if they qualify, DR Congo.
Look out for Ecuador in Pot 2. They finished second in South American qualifying behind Argentina, conceding five times in 18 matches and losing only twice. They were stronger at home than away and, although Quito’s altitude surely helped, they also drew with Brazil and beat an (already qualified) Argentina in Guayaquil. Colombia and Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay, certain to be well supported, are also in that pot.
Scotland’s worst-case scenario
On rankings it would be Spain (world No 1) from Pot 1 and Morocco (ranked 11th) from Pot 2, or Argentina (ranked second) plus Croatia, given the rankings add up to the same figure. Scotland’s position in Pot 3 means they cannot face Norway. The World Cup hosts tend to reach the knockout stage – in the past 10 tournaments, starting with Mexico 86, only South Africa and Qatar failed to do so – but Scotland would surely prefer to face Canada (in particular), Mexico or the USA over any of the other Pot 1 teams. In terms of Pot 4, the picture is the same as England’s.
USA’s worst-case scenario
Their position in Pot 1 as hosts means they avoid the world’s top nine teams. With all options open from Pot 2 because it contains no Concacaf sides, the instinct may be to want to avoid Croatia, but the tricker scenario for the USA may be to land Morocco (or Colombia or Uruguay) and then Norway from Pot 3. Mauricio Pochettino’s side cannot face Panama, the second-best team in Pot 3 according to the rankings, which may be welcome given that Panama have won four of their past six meetings. The USA would probably want to avoid one of the European playoff teams and cannot be in a group with the intercontinental playoff teams because a country from their confederation may win.
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ShowAustralia’s worst-case scenario
Argentina from Pot 1 and Norway from Pot 3 would be an unwelcome combination but would end the possibility of meeting a European team from Pot 4. Jordan, the qualified team from Pot 4 with the highest ranking, can be discounted because they, like Australia, are from the Asian confederation. An alternative unwanted mix for Australia would be Argentina, one of the non-European teams ranked in the 30s in Pot 3 (Panama, Egypt, Algeria and Paraguay) and a European playoff winner. Remember too that Cape Verde, Ghana and potentially DR Congo are looming in Pot 4. Australia’s record against New Zealand suggests that should hold no fears despite being a derby.
Overall possible group of death
The European playoffs in March will determine who from Pot 4 will be the most feared. If Italy make it, few will be keen to face them despite their dismal recent qualifying record. For now, Ghana are perhaps the trickiest of the Pot 4 opponents. In Pot 3, Norway will be a concerning sight for anyone. Pot 2 is an eclectic mix spanning five continents. It includes Ecuador and Morocco, the latter of whom defeated Spain and Portugal en route to the semi-finals at the last World Cup. Theoretically, Argentina, Morocco, Italy and Norway could be drawn together, which would put the teams ranked No 2, No 11, No 12 and No 29 in the world in the same group. But for all the group of death talk, don’t forget that the best eight third-place teams will end up in the knockout stages, removing plenty of jeopardy – and excitement.
Low-hanging fruit?
The expansion of this tournament to incorporate a further 16 teams means plenty lower down the rankings have made it. Australia look the most straightforward opponents in Pot 2. South Africa are the lowest-ranked of the third seeds but Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the debutants Uzbekistan will not send shivers down the spine. The other debutants, Jordan, Cape Verde and Curaçao, are in Pot 4. Haiti and New Zealand are the lowest-ranked teams certain of qualification.
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A reminder of the pots
Pot 1: Canada (world ranking 27), Mexico (15), USA (14), Spain (1), Argentina (2), France (3), England (4), Brazil (5), Portugal (6), Netherlands (7), Belgium (8), Germany (9).
Pot 2: Croatia (10), Morocco (11), Colombia (13), Uruguay (16), Switzerland (17), Japan (18), Senegal (19), Iran (20), South Korea (22), Ecuador (23), Austria (24), Australia (26).
Pot 3: Norway (29), Panama (30), Egypt (34), Algeria (35), Scotland (36), Paraguay (39), Tunisia (40), Côte d’Ivoire (42), Uzbekistan (50), Qatar (51), Saudi Arabia (60), South Africa (61).
Pot 4: Jordan (66), Cape Verde (68), Ghana (72), Curaçao (82), Haiti (84), New Zealand (86), four European playoff teams, two intercontinental playoff teams.
The playoffs: The final six qualifiers will be one of Wales (32), Bosnia and Herzegovina (71), Italy (12) and Northern Ireland (69); one of Ukraine (28), Sweden (43), Poland (31) and Albania (63); one of Slovakia (45), Kosovo (80), Turkey (25) and Romania (47); one of Czech Republic (44), Republic of Ireland (59), Denmark (21) and North Macedonia (65); one of New Caledonia (149), Jamaica (70) and DR Congo (56); and one of Bolivia (76), Suriname (123) and Iraq (58).
The geopolitics interest
Donald Trump’s divisive politics mean he has railed against a good percentage of the countries on the planet. However, Iran loom largest and they are boycotting the draw after being allocated only four visas for a visiting party, not including the football federation president. Trump signed an executive order in June banning Iranians from entering the US but that will not apply to the players, coaches or “persons performing a necessary support role”. One other World Cup country was on that list: Haiti. Trump approved airstrikes on an Iranian nuclear site in June, then said he would “absolutely” consider bombing Iran again. A fixture between the two at France 1998, won 2-1 by Iran, was described as the “most politically charged game in World Cup history”. They also met in 2022, when the US came out on top, but a third fixture would create a political circus to outstrip the one four years ago. Any group match would have a two-thirds chance of taking place in Los Angeles, which has the US’s largest Iranian diaspora.
There has been tension in US v Canada ice hockey games as a consequence of Trump, although that has calmed a little since the US president stopped talking about making Canada the 51st state. The countries could meet in the knockout stage.
Look out too for the possibility of Curaçao facing the Netherlands. The Caribbean island is part of the kingdom of the Netherlands, most of their squad were born in the Netherlands and they have a Dutch (and former Netherlands) manager in Dick Advocaat.
Sticking only with teams guaranteed to be at the World Cup, Iran and Saudi Arabia, between whom relations have been severely strained at times, cannot meet in the group stage. Spain could be drawn to face Morocco. Relations are on an upward curve after years of tension over issues such as immigration from Moroccan territory and the future of Western Sahara. The seedings mean England could not meet Argentina before the semi-finals if both win their groups.
