3 hours ago
2
Group A
Could the unthinkable happen? Germany have never failed to qualify for the World Cup but the four-time champions can’t afford slip-ups if they are to seal top spot after losing against Slovakia in their opening game. Julian Nagelsmann’s side lead Slovakia on goal difference and need to beat Luxembourg on Friday and see whether Northern Ireland – guaranteed a playoff after finishing top of their Nations League group – can do them any favours in Slovakia on the same night. Germany finish against Slovakia in Leipzig on Monday in what could be a winner-takes-all showdown. Teams finishing second go into the playoffs.
Group B
Switzerland will qualify on Saturday if they achieve a better result at home to Sweden than Kosovo secure in Slovenia. Switzerland’s vastly superior goal difference means they will be virtually assured of a World Cup place if they match Kosovo’s result. But if Kosovo close the three-point gap to the leaders, things will be excitingly poised for their final game at home to Switzerland in Pristina on Tuesday. Sweden, playing under Graham Potter for the first time, should make the playoffs by virtue of having won their Nations League group.
Group C
With Greece and Belarus eliminated, it is a straight fight between Denmark and Scotland for automatic qualification. Steve Clarke’s side head into the final two matches trailing on goal difference so will in all likelihood need at least a point in Athens on Saturday to have a chance of taking top spot when they meet Denmark at Hampden Park on 18 November.
Group D
France have a playoff in the bag courtesy of the Nations League and will qualify in top spot if they beat Ukraine in Paris on Thursday. Even a draw would leave France set fair going into their final game in Azerbaijan given they lead Ukraine by three points and have a goal difference superior by five. An Iceland win in Baku on Thursday coupled with a France victory over Ukraine would move Iceland second on goal difference before they face Ukraine on Sunday in Warsaw. Azerbaijan’s very slim hopes of sneaking into a playoff require victories over Iceland and France and sufficiently improving their -9 goal difference.
Group E
Spain, having won their first four matches, are on the verge of qualification. If they get a better result in Georgia on Saturday than Turkey secure at home to Bulgaria they will guarantee top spot, and matching Turkey’s result would all but seal the deal given their goal difference is better than Turkey’s by 12. Turkey need a point – or a slip by Georgia – to guarantee a playoff. They finish on Tuesday in Seville against Spain, who beat them 6-0 in September.
Group F
An injury-time equaliser by Hungary’s Dominik Szoboszlai in Lisbon last month has made Portugal wait a little longer to book their place. Two points from games in the Republic of Ireland on Thursday and at home to Armenia on Sunday would guarantee top spot. Hungary, who are second, one point ahead of Ireland, would secure a playoff on Thursday if they win in Armenia and Ireland lose to Portugal. Otherwise the playoff spot may come down to Hungary’s game against Ireland in Budapest on Sunday.
Group G
Poland’s hopes of overhauling the Netherlands, who lead them by three points with a vastly superior goal different, rest on beating Ronald Koeman’s side in Warsaw on Friday and hoping eliminated Lithuania can do them a favour in Amsterdam on Monday. The Netherlands drew at home to Poland in September but have otherwise won most games comfortably. Finland, who face Malta in their last match on Friday, have an outside chance of reaching the playoffs if Poland lose to the Netherlands and Malta.
Group H
Three teams are in contention to finish top, although Austria know a win over Cyprus on Saturday combined with second-placed Bosnia and Herzegovina losing or drawing at home to third-placed Romania would confirm qualification. Bosnia, two points behind Austria with a goal difference inferior by eight, travel to Vienna on Tuesday. Romania, who need two wins to have a chance of top spot, host San Marino that day. There is the intriguing possibility that San Marino, Fifa’s lowest-ranked nation, could book a playoff spot after winning their Nations League group, if Romania finish second – a situation that could rely on how many goals they score in their final match.
Group I
Norway lead Italy by three points and no one else can finish in the top two. A win for Norway at home to Estonia on Thursday would in effect secure qualification before they travel to San Siro on Sunday because the astonishing 29 goals plundered by Erling Haaland and co from six matches have given the team a frankly ridiculous goal difference of +26, 16 ahead of Italy. Gennaro Gattuso’s side need maximum points from their games, which start in Moldova on Thursday, and a Norway slip against Estonia to avoid the playoff for which they appear destined as they try to qualify for a first World Cup since 2014.
Group J
Belgium need one win from two games to be sure of automatic qualification and face a potentially tricky fixture in Kazakhstan on Saturday. If they do not manage it there, Rudi Garcia’s side should wrap up top spot against Liechtenstein on Tuesday. Wales and North Macedonia have mathematical hope of overhauling Belgium but are realistically playing for second place. Wales are assured of a playoff thanks to the Nations League but must finish as runners-up to avoid being among the bottom seeds and having an away semi-final. Winning in Liechtenstein on Saturday and at home to North Macedonia on Tuesday would guarantee second for Wales. If Wales beat Liechtenstein by six or more goals a draw with North Macedonia, whose only remaining game is in Cardiff, would suffice.
Group K
England last month became the first European nation to confirm qualification for the Word Cup and Thomas Tuchel’s side will have a big say in the fight for second place. Serbia trail Albania by a point and almost certainly need a positive result at Wembley on Thursday because defeat coupled with an Albania win in Andorra would end their playoff hopes. Albania, who have never qualified for the World Cup but have reached the Euros finals twice, in 2016 and 2024, face England in Tirana in their final match as Serbia entertain Latvia.
Group L
Croatia, semi-finalists at the past two World Cups, need a point at home to the Faroe Islands on Friday or in Montenegro on Monday to guarantee their spot in the finals again. They can be overhauled only by the Czech Republic, who are three points behind with one game remaining, at home to Gibraltar on Monday, but a goal difference inferior by 15. The Faroe Islands, surprise winners against the Czech Republic last month, will finish second in the unlikely event that they achieve a better result against Croatia than the Czech Republic secure against Gibraltar.
Playoffs
At the draw on 20 November the 12 group runners-up will be joined by the four best-ranked Nations League section winners who did not finish in the top two. As things stand, that will be Wales, Romania, Sweden and Northern Ireland, although Moldova and San Marino could make it. The 16 teams will be seeded and drawn into four playoff paths, with four teams in each. Playoff matches will be played in March in single-leg semi-finals followed by single-leg finals to decide Europe’s final four World Cup qualifiers.
