Canelo v Crawford: our experts predict the winner of Saturday’s big fight

Why Terence Crawford will beat Canelo Álvarez

For years Bud Crawford’s name has been synonymous with patience. Denied mainstream recognition and opportunities against name-brand fighters, he kept beating everyone they put in front of him until he’d unified all four titles at junior welterweight. Then he did it again at welterweight with a dismantling of Errol Spence Jr so complete it cemented his place in boxing’s pound-for-pound S-tier alongside Naoya Inoue and Oleksandr Usyk. His gifts are obvious: the ability to switch seamlessly between stances, to read rhythms like sheet music, and to mete out punishment with icy composure once he’s cracked the code.

Crawford’s scaling of two weight classes for this fight remains the 168lb elephant in the room. All but one of his 41 professional bouts took place at 147lb or below, while Canelo has been entrenched at 168 for nearly seven years and once captured a title at 175. On paper that is an enormous gap. But the leap may not be prohibitive. Crawford’s wiry frame has long suggested he could carry more weight – he’s actually a half-inch taller than Álvarez with a three-and-a-half-inch reach advantage – and reports from camp say he has done so without sacrificing quickness. Just as important, Canelo’s aura of near-invincibility has dimmed. He has not finished an opponent inside the distance in nearly four years. Against elusive opposition (Callum Smith, John Ryder, most recently William Scull), he has been content to bank rounds rather than impose himself. Against slick boxers (Mayweather, Erislandy Lara, Austin Trout, Amir Khan for a while), he’s even looked ordinary. If the Mexican superstar is indeed in gentle decline, Crawford is precisely the kind of opponent capable of exposing it.

Canelo’s vulnerabilities are not theoretical. Dmitry Bivol outworked him with straight punches and consistency, underlining his tendency to fight in bursts and give away stretches of rounds. Billy Joe Saunders and Caleb Plant both troubled him before wilting late. Even in victory, Canelo can drift, allowing opponents space to build momentum. Crawford thrives on hesitation. He forces fighters to second-guess, then punishes the pauses with sharp, accurate counters. If Canelo indulges in those lulls, Crawford will turn them into banked rounds and tilt the scorecards his way.

It won’t be easy work. The first time Crawford is hit cleanly by Canelo will be the hardest he’s ever been hit in his life. And while the American has never been down or seriously hurt in a fight, it’s not as if he’s untouchable. Egidijus Kavaliauskas buckled his knees in 2019. Shawn Porter was competitive for the better part of nine rounds. Israil Madrimov had moments of success last year at 154. But those fights only reinforced Crawford’s defining trait: he adjusts midstream better than anyone in the sport. Once he solves the puzzle, he finishes the job. That’s why he strung together 11 straight stoppages before Madrimov – and why many consider him the most ruthless finisher in boxing. The danger he presents is cumulative. The jab grows more authoritative, the body work more telling and the counters sharper until resistance crumbles.

Much has been made of the Vegas judges leaning Canelo’s way. Many felt Gennady Golovkin deserved the nod in their first fight, present company included. And the 114-114 card in the Mayweather fight was risible. It’s hard to imagine Crawford taking it out of their hands completely. But if his counters are sharper, his command of distance more telling and his punches more eye-catching, then he could follow the same path to victory that Sugar Ray Leonard took when he climbed to middleweight and outpointed Marvin Hagler in 1987.

Terence Crawford poses on the scale during Friday’s ceremonial weigh-in. Photograph: Candice Ward/Getty Images for Netflix

The weight may allow Canelo’s power to carry more consequence, especially early, but Crawford’s discipline will matter most. He will not allow himself to be trapped on the ropes or bullied into fighting at Canelo’s pace. Expect a competitive opening, then Crawford gradually asserting control with timing, angles and sharp counters that accumulate on the scorecards. Canelo will have moments, but Crawford’s rhythm and relentlessness will ensure they’re fewer and farther between as the fight goes on.

The spectacle will be immense – Allegiant Stadium swollen with 70,000 fans, Netflix broadcasting to millions worldwide – but strip away the noise and this comes down to fundamentals. On Saturday night, I believe Crawford’s timing, adaptability and efficiency will carry him to a close but uncontroversial points win. Whether he gets the decision is another matter altogether. Bryan Armen Graham

Why Canelo Álvarez will beat Terence Crawford

Next month it will be 20 years since Saúl “Canelo” Álvarez made his professional debut in the historic old Mexican town of Tonalá on the outskirts of Guadalajara. Álvarez had turned 15 three months earlier and his fight purse was 800 pesos – the equivalent of $40.

Years later he confided that “they actually only paid me half of that. The other half was in tickets. I gave all the tickets to my family so I came home with 400 pesos. It seemed a lot.”

Álvarez has long been the richest fighter in boxing, with his earnings closing in on a billion dollars, but on Saturday night he will earn the most astronomical purse of his career in a manufactured contest. The great Terence Crawford is, essentially, a brilliant welterweight while Álvarez has even been a world champion at light-heavyweight. They will meet at super-middleweight, the natural home for Álvarez in his twilight years. He remains the undisputed world champion at 168lb while Crawford, whose last bout was an unconvincing first performance at 154, is jumping two weight divisions.

Yet their discrepancy in size is balanced by various factors which mean that, despite the contrived match-up, this fight is fueled by enough intrigue and uncertainty to offer it a legitimacy that could never be attached to the embarrassment of Jake Paul sharing the ring with a 58-year-old Mike Tyson in 2024’s equivalent of the most hyped scrap of the year.

Álvarez and Crawford are exemplary fighters who carry gravitas and grit, style and substance. Crawford is a master boxer who fights with an ice-cold edge. He has the speed and movement to trouble Alvarez – especially as the Mexican is years past his prime. Alvarez, at 35, is actually the younger man as Crawford turns 38 next month. The Mexican has compiled a formidable 63-2-2 record but he is now a much slower and weathered version of his best self.

Álvarez’s ring IQ is matched by his intelligence outside the ring and so it’s little surprise that he has chosen his recent opponents carefully. His courage and resolve have been indisputable against many outstanding fighters – from Shane Mosley and Floyd Mayweather Jr to Gennady Golovkin and Dmitry Bivol. But lately, rather than facing dangerous rivals like David Benavidez, who would have a serious chance of beating him, Álvarez has selected easier opponents.

This strategic thinking is one of the reasons why it’s difficult to pick against him. Álvarez has great respect for Crawford’s blistering talent but he seems certain he will be too big and strong for the American.

Crawford has a flawless 41-0 record but, in his last fight, which saw him move up to super-welterweight, he looked diminished against Israil Madrimov – who made just his 12th appearance in the professional ring. Madrimov is a solid fighter but it was a salutary night for Crawford. He won a unanimous decision but his supporters must have shuddered when wondering how he would negotiate another leap up two further weight classes, where Álvarez hits so much harder than Madrimov.

Saúl “Canelo” Álvarez flexes for the crowd at Friday’s ceremonial weigh-in. Photograph: Steve Marcus/Getty Images

Álvarez looked terrible in his last fight, a stinker in May against the lightly-regarded pacifist William Scull. But he is intensely motivated now and it seems telling that Álvarez has been sparring hard with Jaron “Boots” Ennis, who would test Crawford at welterweight.

Crawford is, technically, the world’s best boxer since Mayweather Jr. Álvarez was barely 23 when he was outboxed by Mayweather in 2013, but he also struggled during a split-decision win against Erislandy Lara, a slick southpaw who moved. Crawford epitomizes those three attributes far more convincingly than Lara.

But it seems unlikely that Crawford will be able to put a real dent in Álvarez. His clinical punching will chip away at the Mexican’s granite chin but, eventually, the logic of size and space should prevail. Álvarez is so adept at shutting down distance that, when he eventually corners Crawford, his bulk and power will be sapping.

Crawford is fiercely competitive and his instinct might be to stand and trade. That could be a terrible mistake. Instead, Crawford needs to stick and move in an attempt to expose this worn version of Álvarez. But boxing is an unforgiving business and Álvarez, so often favored by the judges in Vegas, will probably bludgeon his way to a points victory over the valiant, skilful but, ultimately, outgunned Crawford. Donald McRae