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Analysis: Iran’s willingness to escalate high-stakes war is its greatest weapon
Patrick Wintour
Brinkmanship – the ability to take a country to the edge of war without plunging it into the abyss – was the cornerstone of cold war diplomacy. But in our different, more unstable times, the world this week finally tipped over the edge, and suddenly it is in freefall.
The first six days of the Iran war cost the US $12.7bn (£9.5bn), but now the Pentagon is seeking as much as $200bn in military funding. Oil at $125 a barrel is no longer an Iranian, or Russian, fantasy. The crown jewel of Qatar, Ras Laffan – the world’s largest liquefied natural gas plant – may not reopen fully for five years, at a cost of $20bn a year. Other combustible oil depots in the Gulf, from Bahrain to Abu Dhabi, are exposed to Iran’s low-cost drones.
Then add the human cost of 18,000 civilians injured and more than 3,000 killed in Iran alone.
The Iranian regime – fighting for its survival – has no compunction about escalating the war. Indeed, its willingness to do so is its greatest weapon. An Iranian official warned this week:
Other playing cards have been designed that will enter the fray at the right time.
This is probably a reference to the Gulf’s desalination plants, the centre of the region’s fragile ecosystem.
Iran’s leadership, with nothing to lose, benefits from an asymmetric advantage of fear.
To read the full analysis, click here:
The European Commission has urged EU states to lower natural-gas storage targets and start refilling reserves gradually to curb demand, the Financial Times reported on Saturday.
The EU energy commissioner, Dan Jorgensen, instructed member states to lower the filling target for their gas storage facilities to 80% of capacity – 10 percentage points below the EU’s official targets – “as early as possible in the filling season to provide certainty and reassurance to market participants”, the newspaper said, citing a letter.
The Iran war has disrupted key suppliers and prompted soaring energy prices.
Iranian military threatens tourist sites worldwide
Amid Iran’s retaliatory strikes in the Gulf region, the military has also threatened recreational and tourist sites worldwide.
Iran’s top military spokesperson, Gen Abolfazl Shekarchi, warned that “parks, recreational areas and tourist destinations” globally will not be safe for the country’s enemies.
The threat, quoted by the Associated Press, has renewed concerns that Tehran may revert to using militant attacks beyond the Middle East as a pressure tactic to halt US and Israeli strikes.
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait intercept air attacks
Saudi Arabia says it is continuing to intercept and destroy drones in recent hours while neighbouring Kuwait says it has also been intercepting air attacks.
The Saudi defence ministry, quoting a spokesperson, said on Saturday in the last of a series of social media posts that it had intercepted five drones in its eastern region.
Its previous posts said it had intercepted a total of seven drones, and shortly before that another 12, in the area.
Reports quoted the ministry as saying it had intercepted dozens of drones overnight in the east.
In Kuwait, the army said air defences were intercepting missile and drone attacks. The post on Saturday also said:
The General Staff of the Army notes that if explosion sounds are heard, they are the result of air defense systems intercepting the hostile attacks.
Saudi Arabia condemns Israeli attacks in Syria
The Saudi foreign ministry has condemned Israeli strikes on Syrian army camps as “aggression”, joining Turkey in calling on the international community to intervene.
Israel’s military said on Friday it had struck southern Syria in response to what it called attacks against the Druze community in Sweida province and that it “will continue to act for their protection”.
The Saudi ministry said in a statement on Saturday that the kingdom condemned “the blatant Israeli aggression ... in flagrant violation of international law and Syrian sovereignty”, Agence France-Presse is reporting.
The foreign ministry urged the international community “to put an end to Israel’s violations of international laws and norms”.
Turkey’s foreign ministry called the Israeli attack “a dangerous escalation” that the international community must stop.
Last year Israel launched airstrikes in Syria during a deadly bout of sectarian violence, saying it was acting to defend the minority group.
Syria has so far avoided being dragged into the regional conflict sparked by the US-Israeli attacks on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said on Thursday that clashes with government forces in Sweida province had left at least four Druze fighters dead. Israeli shelling later hit residential neighbourhoods in Sweida city, it said.
Syria’s foreign ministry denounced an “outrageous assault on Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity” and called the Israeli justification “flimsy pretexts and fabricated excuses”.
Welcome summary
Hello and welcome to our continuing live coverage of the US-Israel war on Iran and its repercussions for the Middle East, the world and the global economy.
President Donald Trump said on Friday he was considering “winding down” military operations against Iran, as the US temporarily eased sanctions on Iranian oil shipments to stem a global supply crisis.
Trump said on his Truth Social platform that the US was “getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great military efforts in the Middle East”. His post was the strongest indication yet that he may be prepared to soon end hostilities that began on 28 February.
The White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said on X shortly after Trump’s message: “The President and the Pentagon predicted it would take approximately 4-6 weeks to achieve this mission.”
Amid growing concern over oil prices and global supply shortages, the US Treasury said it was temporarily lifting sanctions on Iranian oil already loaded onto vessels. The authorisation allowed for the delivery and sale of Iranian crude oil and other petroleum products loaded on to ships before 20 March and would last until 19 April, it said.
Iran launched a new wave of drone and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia and Israel, meanwhile, after supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei claimed to have dealt a “dizzying blow” to his country’s enemies. In response, the Israeli military launched strikes on “regime targets” in Tehran early on Saturday.
Here’s a snapshot of other key developments:
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Iran is willing to help Japanese ships sail a vital route for global fuel supplies, foreign minister Abbas Araghchi told Kyodo News in an interview published on Saturday. Japan depends on crude oil imports from the Middle East, most of which transits the strait of Hormuz.
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Iran fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia but neither of them hit the joint US-UK military base in the Indian Ocean, the Wall Street Journal and CNN reported, citing multiple US officials. The WSJ said one of the missiles failed in flight, and a US warship fired an SM-3 interceptor at the other. Neither outlet confirmed when Iran launched the missiles.
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One person was killed and two others wounded after an Israeli airstrike hit a house in a town in southern Lebanon early on Saturday, state media said.
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Trump continued to make his disappointment with the British government known, saying the UK “should have acted a lot faster” in allowing the US military to use its bases in the Middle East.
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Earlier, Downing Street approved US use of its bases “for the collective self-defence of the region”, including “defensive operations” degrading Iranian missile sites targeting ships in the strait of Hormuz. Britain had previously only allowed US forces to use its bases for operations to prevent Iran firing missiles that put British interests or lives at risk.
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Araghchi said Keir Starmer “is putting British lives in danger by allowing UK bases to be used for aggression against Iran”.
