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The climate change minister has mounted the case for the federal government to set a strong 2035 emissions reduction target after releasing a “confronting” report that warned no Australian community would escape the worsening risks of the climate crisis.
Chris Bowen said the “cost of inaction will always outweigh the cost of action” in a message to political and industry voices warning about the economic price of rapid decarbonisation.
The minister made the comments on Monday as he released the long-awaited national climate risk assessment, which provided the most detailed picture of the severe and far-reaching social and economic consequences of the climate crisis for Australia.
The government also released a national adaptation framework to help prepare communities managing a changing climate.
Led by the Australian Climate Service, the inaugural assessment modelled the impact of climate-related hazards such as heatwaves, drought and floods on different parts of the community, economy and environment under three global heating scenarios: above 1.5C, above 2C and above 3C.
Warming across the Australian continent has already reached 1.5C, the report notes.
Among scores of findings, the modelling shows that under a 3C scenario, the number of heat-related deaths in Sydney increases by 444% and by 423% in Darwin.
The report also lays bare the heightened risk from rising sea levels on Australia’s populous coastal communities, including flooding, erosion and inundation.
It finds that by 2050, 1.5 million coastal residents would be at risk, rising to more than 3 million by 2090.
The assessment also models the economic impact, estimating the direct cost of floods, bushfires, storms and cyclones across the states and territories could reach $40bn a year in 2050 – even under a 1.5C scenario.
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“It’s important that we don’t gild the lily or downplay its impact in any way. We have to be honest with the Australian people,” Bowen said of the “confronting” findings in the report.
The delays in publishing the climate risk assessment prompted accusations the government was trying bury the findings, which sources familiar with its contents had described as “intense and scary”.
The release of the report was immediately seized upon by environmentalists, climate scientists, social services groups and the Greens as evidence the government must commit to a 2035 emissions target above 75%.
The federal cabinet is expected to sign off on the 2035 target later this week after the Climate Change Authority provided its advice to Bowen last Friday.
The authority’s preliminary advice suggested a range between 65% and 75%, with most of the political debate and lobbying from industry and green groups centred on that level of ambition.
Bowen said the government’s target would be “controversial by definition”, acknowledging that some people would consider it too high while others would criticise it as too low.
The minister was confident cabinet would agree a target that was achievable but ambitious.
“There isn’t an Australian community that isn’t impacted by climate change going forward, and there isn’t an Australian individual for whom those impacts won’t be real and material,” he said.
“So at a time when the political debate is focused on the cost of action, both real and imagined, this report is a reminder, if we needed one ever, that the cost of inaction will always outweigh the cost of action.”
The debate over Australia’s 2035 target comes amid signs the global push to net zero is losing momentum, with Donald Trump withdrawing the US from the Paris Agreement and other countries, such as Canada and New Zealand, moderating their ambitions.
Bowen acknowledged the “global headwinds” facing the green energy transition but said Australia and the rest of the world must press on.
“Climate change action and various elements will go through sort of various iterations of fashion – but the science won’t change, the economics won’t change, and this government’s commitment won’t change,” he said.
The Albanese government’s commitment to fighting the climate crisis was questioned as recently as Friday after it approved an extension of Woodside’s North West Shelf gas project out to 2070 – dubbed a “carbon bomb” by environmentalists.
Bowen defended the fossil fuel’s role in the green energy transition as he insisted the government’s “seriousness on climate action cannot be understated”.
The Climate Council chief executive, Amanda McKenzie, described the report’s findings as “terrifying” while the Australian Conservation Foundation’s acting chief executive, Paul Sinclair, said it should be a “wake-up call for the Albanese government”.
The Greens leader, Larissa Waters, said the findings were “chilling”.
“What this report shows is that a 2035 target of 65% means significant potential for loss of life and strain on health systems, more extreme heat, more devastating floods, crop failures, fires, global insecurity and the death of every coral reef around the world,” she said.
“If Labor fails to set a science-based climate target then it’s crystal clear: they have utterly prioritised coal and gas profits at the expense of community safety and nature.”
The risk assessment will be scrutinised at a parliamentary inquiry on Tuesday, which was launched amid frustration from the Greens and other crossbenchers over the repeated delays in its release.
