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How they got here …
Los Angeles: A solid 12-5 record, losing only one game by more than three points (33-26 at Philadelphia in Week 3). A first-round playoff win in a shootout against Carolina, 34-31. Then last week’s wild game against Chicago in which the defense let up just long enough to allow Caleb Williams to complete a miraculous game-tying pass, only to tighten the screws and win in overtime.
Seattle: Opened with a 17-13 loss to San Francisco and lost a 38-35 decision to Tampa Bay in Week 5. That was their last home loss on the way to a 14-3 record, closing with a revenge win against the 49ers and opening the playoffs with a 41-6 demolition of the same team.
The Seahawks’ only other loss? Week 11 – at Los Angeles, 21-19. They won the return game in Week 16 in spectacular fashion, rallying from 16 points down in the fourth quarter and converting an all-or-nothing two-point conversion in overtime for the win.
So the Rams can take heart in knowing that they got the better of Los Angeles for 1 3/4 of their two games. But the Seahawks allowed the fewest points this season, and they’ve been ruthless at home.
Changing attention to this game – the sun is out in Seattle. The broadcasters are bundled up against the cold, but the conditions absolutely won’t affect the players here.
And the AFC game is basically over.
There will be a lot of pointed questions for the Broncos coaching staff after that one. With a backup QB and whiteout conditions, they insisted on throwing the ball instead of running it against a snowblind defense. And then they utterly failed to contain Drake Maye on the last meaningful play, letting him roam free to pick up a game-clinching first down.
You can’t pin that one on Jarrett Stidham. That is a series of coaching blunders beyond imagination.
Have the Broncos completely given up on the run?
To underscore the point – the Patriots just picked off a pass. Tony Romo blames backup QB Jarrett Stidham for a poor decision. I think the receiver never turned around to look for the ball.
Today’s inactive players are …
Seattle: QB Jalen Milroe (emergency third QB), TE Elijah Arroyo, FB Robbie Ouzts, LB Jared Ivey, G Christian Haynes, T Amari Kight, RB Velus Jones Jr.
Los Angeles: QB Stetson Bennett (emergency third QB), WR Tutu Atwell, CB Derion Kendrick, RB Jarquez Hunter, TE Nick Vannett, OL Beaux Limmer, DE Larrell Murchison.
The AFC championship is down to 3:07 remaining. Nothing resembling football has been played since the weather turned ugly partway through the third quarter.
First question: Weather
Whether you’re watching the AFC championship game live or following along with Graham Searles, you know the story of the second half is the weather. New England leads but is playing the fourth quarter staring into white sheets of wind-driven frozen precipitation.
Much of the country is dealing with similar conditions. If it’s snowing, you’re lucky. It could be sleet or freezing rain.
So how are things in Seattle, where the Seahawks will host the Rams with a spot in the Super Bowl on the line?
Wind … maybe 2 mph. Cloudy skies but scant chance of precipitation. Temperatures slightly north of freezing.
In other words – not a factor. Seattle fans won’t be silenced by a slight chill.
Send an email my way if you have a few thoughts. Routine win for the dominant Seahawks? Or do the Rams have a surprise in store?
Beau will be here shortly. In the meantime, here’s Graham Searles’ preview of today’s game:
Los Angeles Rams v Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 6.30pm ET/11.30pm GMT)
What Los Angeles need to do to win: Running back Kyren Williams can unlock Seattle’s disciplined, fast and destructive defense, which is led by linebacker Ernest Jones. To help beat a team that will dare Matthew Stafford to throw by showing light boxes, Williams has to shine. Fortunately for the Rams he is one of the most patient rushers in the NFL, always waiting for gaps to develop before punching through. The Rams’ elite pass protection also gives Sean McVay the flexibility to keep Stafford safe in the pocket against a menacing Seattle front. If Williams can keep moving the chains and force the Seahawks to bring an extra safety into the box, deep shots to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams should open up. The Rams will then find the rhythm needed to overcome Seattle’s mean machine.
What Seattle need to do to win: The Seahawks have lost a key piece of their offensive gameplan. Zach Charbonnet’s torn ACL means Seattle’s run game will go through Kenneth Walker III, a change that risks slowing down the offense’s efficiency. The Seahawks need to scheme up the passing game to make up for the shortfall, rather than throw in a rusty Cam Akers. Akers, recently on the practice squad, may keep Walker’s legs fresh but he isn’t likely to do any damage to the Rams. A more potent threaten is Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Rashid Shaheed receiving quick, high percentage throws and speeding away with yards after the catch.
Key player for the Rams: Kevin Dotson, right guard. The offensive lineman has been stewing for weeks, after Seattle’s Derick Hall stepped on Dotson when he was down injured in LA’s epic defeat at Lumen Field in week 16. “I’m not going to hold nothing against him until I can see him and get my get-back. Not gonna step on nobody, I’ll get it between the whistles,” Dotson said before facing Chicago last week. Bold to call your shot a game early but the brilliant run blocker has earned his chance to dominate the enemy.
Key player for the Seahawks: Sam Darnold, quarterback. “We want him to be decisive and rip it,” said Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald last month on what he expects from the best version of Darnold we have seen yet. When he is protected and letting it fly, few are better in the NFL and, thanks to a palate-cleansing first playoff win last week, Darnold could find his flow state quickly. The Seahawks may need him to: they have a hamstrung running game, and this one could quickly turn into a shootout.
Prediction: Seahawks over Rams. Whoever has the ball last wins this one, but it is Macdonald’s team who have been more consistent. Stafford’s struggle to complete passes in Chicago last week was noteworthy; he is facing a tougher defense in just as hostile environs on Sunday. A raucous home crowd will boost Seattle to the Super Bowl.
