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An eerie quiet hangs over Ras Al Khaimah’s industrial port. Usually a thriving maritime hub of the United Arab Emirates, now ships stand docked and silent. Not far out along the hazy horizon, a backlog of hundreds of tankers have lined up in recent days, halted along a waterway flooded with danger.
Any vessel heading past Ras Al Khaimah out to the Arabian Sea must traverse the world’s most treacherous strip of water for shipping today: the strait of Hormuz. Just over 20 nautical miles from Ras Al Khaimah, two oil tankers heading for the strait were attacked by Iranian missiles this week, one catching fire.
On Saturday, Fujairah, the UAE’s main oil port on its east coast, was targeted by a drone attack, with thick black smoke seen billowing from its terminal.
It is one of the many consequences facing Gulf states as they are pulled deeper into a war that they did not start and had diplomatically tried to prevent.
For decades, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Oman have allowed US military bases, infrastructure or access on their soil, and have been among the largest buyers of American weapons and technology. In return, the US has stood as the Gulf’s closest and most significant military partner and protector.
But now, Gulf states have growing concerns over the relationship, analysts say, after Donald Trump was seen to wilfully torpedo peaceful diplomatic negotiations in favour of starting a war in the Middle East.
“The perceived Iran threat to the Gulf only became a reality when the US declared the war – Iran did not fire first,” says Khaled Almezaini, an associate professor of politics and international relations at Zayed University, in Abu Dhabi. “There is strong condemnation of the Iranians but at the same time there’s a message to the Americans and the Israelis that, well, we have to find a way to end this. This is not our war.”
In the weeks before the strikes, Gulf leaders hosted negotiations and made repeated overtures to the US president, emphasising the severe consequences for regional security if he attacked Iran. Yet Trump chose to carry out the strikes, it is widely believed, without consulting or warning Gulf allies.
While the Gulf expected to be caught in the backlash, the scale of Iran’s campaign of revenge has left many shocked. Gulf states had assured Tehran that none of their bases would be used for attacks but that has not stopped Iran launching thousands of drones and missiles targeting airports, military bases, oil refineries, ports, hotels and office buildings.
Aviation in the region remains highly restricted, with airlines losing billions of dollars. Bahrain is facing an economic crisis, while the UAE’s reputation as a haven for tourism and western investment has taken a significant hit. States are successfully rebuffing most Iranian missiles and drones, but the interceptors and air defence systems are costing countries like the UAE upwards of $2bn (£1.5bn).
Iran’s violent blockade of the strait of Hormuz – the only sea passage linking the Gulf with the open ocean and through which a fifth of global energy supplies are carried – has led to a drastic reduction in the oil and gas exports that bankroll Gulf economies. Experts estimate that between $700m and $1.2bn is being lost every day in oil exports.
“The UAE and GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] tried to stop the United States declaring this war because they knew the implications,” says Almezaini. He pointed to the threats made by Iran’s foreign minister only months earlier about the closure of the strait. “Now that exact scenario is playing out,” he adds.
The asymmetry of the Gulf’s military partnership with the US has never been more stark, says Allison Minor, the director of the Atlantic Council’s project on Middle East integration. It was only in September that Israel carried out airstrikes on Qatar, another US Gulf ally, which did not prompt any substantive action from Washington.
“The most fundamental question is one of consultation,” she says. “Are the Gulf states actually achieving the kind of partnership and security support that they feel is necessary if the United States is going to engage militarily in the region?”
On Thursday, the Omani foreign minister, Badr bin Hamad al Busaidi, who was the mediator in the previous Iran-US talks, gave some of his strongest comments on the conflict yet.
“Oman’s view [is] that the military attacks against Iran by the United States and Israel are illegal, and that for as long as they continue to pursue hostilities, those states that launched this war are in breach of international law,” he said.
Al Busaidi said the US decision to strike Iran while peaceful negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme were making progress demonstrated the conflict was solely an attempt to reorder the Middle East in Israel’s favour.
Analysts emphasise that many Gulf states find themselves in a conflicting position: trying to bring down the temperature of the war while pushing for the US to finish the job in Iran and ensure they are not left with a worst-case scenario – a weakened, wounded and volatile Islamic republic on their doorstep.
“This is the Gulf’s worst nightmare,” says Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and north Africa programme at Chatham House. “There’s deep anger and frustration at the United States because this is not their [the Gulf states’] war, and yet they’re bearing the brunt.” Vakil says Gulf states had long pursued a security partnership with the US similar to the one enjoyed by Israel, but had now realised “that may never happen”.
Yet for all the recognition of the need to diversify their security partners, she adds, the Gulf currently has no alternative as its ultimate protector.
“The Gulf is not going to move quickly, nor can they, in finding alternatives to the US. But they’re also not going to just double down with an unreliable partner,” she says. “It will likely move forward in the pursuit of strategic autonomy, which has already been on the horizon, perhaps at a more rapid pace.”
For all the geopolitical ramifications, the economic effects have also trickled down to ordinary life. Standing at the boat and jetski rental firm he worked for in the marina next to Ras Al Khaimah port, Sumon, 27, says business has been throttled because none of their boats are allowed out to sea by the coastguard.
“For many days, our boats and jetskis aren’t allowed to go out because of all these problems and fighting with Iran in the sea,” he says. “It’s very bad news, we don’t have customers and my boss can’t give me a salary.” Sumon points to the port opposite: “No boats are moving any more. No one knows when it will end.”
