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Two years ago, the European Union’s adoption of a 2035 ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars was hailed as an act of global leadership, and a declaration of faith in the journey to net zero. That the home of BMW, Renault and Fiat should decisively reverse away from the internal combustion engine was seen as a symbolic moment.
This week, Brussels proposals to water down that ban have sent a very different kind of message. Electric vehicles might be the future. But after intensive lobbying by German and Italian manufacturers, the European Commission has proposed a reprieve for new CO2-emitting cars that would allow them to be sold after the former cut-off date. According to the EU’s industry commissioner, Stéphane Séjourné, this U-turn offers a “lifeline” to an ailing car industry that has struggled to cope with Donald Trump’s trade wars and Chinese competition.
In reality, it looks more like a collective loss of nerve in Brussels. During her first term as European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen made the EU’s climate agenda her defining mission. Modernisation and decarbonisation were seen to go hand in hand, delivering the key to future prosperity. But that was then. The climbdown on cars is the clearest signal yet that economic headwinds, geopolitical uncertainty and the rise of the net zero-sceptic far right have rattled the EU’s resolve.
Policy inconsistency and mixed messaging is no way to run a transition. As critics of the proposals such as Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, have rightly pointed out, if Europe is to remain a powerhouse of the global car industry, it needs to speed up rather than put its foot on the brake. Meddling with the 2035 deadline may offer short-term relief to manufacturers, but allowing them to continue investing in the past will do nothing to ensure they flourish in the long term.
Europe is already playing – and losing – a game of catch-up with state-subsidised Chinese competitors, which have flooded the zone. Companies such as BYD are steadily increasing their EV market share, despite Brussels’ imposition of steep tariffs last year. Rather than removing the clarity and consistency that investors require, the EU should concentrate on increasing fiscal incentives and charging infrastructure to drive consumer demand, and creating a more level playing field for European manufacturers.
More broadly, at a time when the US under Mr Trump is abandoning its environmental responsibilities, and the European far right is campaigning against net zero targets, the desire to fiddle with a totemic timeline feels ominous. Ms von der Leyen used to describe the EU’s green deal as a “strategy for growth that gives more back than it takes away”. That remains as true now as it was in her first term. But only if Europe’s leaders pursue it with the kind of conviction, resources and joined-up thinking that reassures businesses and consumers.
Road transport is responsible for about one-fifth of EU greenhouse gas emissions, and more than 60% of that is produced by cars. The EU’s ban on new polluters was calculated to help enable the 2050 net zero target to be met, and placed it in the global vanguard of the green transition. This week’s backsliding is bad news for the planet, and bad news for the future of Europe’s car industry.
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